TIME: 7:00 p.m. ET
AT: Notre Dame, Ind. - Purcell Pavilion (9,149)
SERIES: UT leads 20-4
1ST MTG: UT 71-56 (11/25/83)
LAST MTG: ND 86-70 (1/20/14)
TV: ESPN2/WatchESPN (live) (Beth Mowins, p-b-p / Stephanie White, color)
This game is always so interesting to UConn fans.
It's the ghosts of Tennessee past at the Floppers of Notre Dame Present.
For someone like me, who is always following these teams almost as close as UConn, its a dream come true. Whoever loses, it makes me happy. And whoever wins? At least the other team lost.
As many UConn fans have said, if there is a way that both teams can lose, this would be a great time for that to happen. Ahh.....that's just wishful thinking. Reality is one of these teams will have bragging rights for the season and we all know that bragging is what these two fan bases do best!!
This is the 25th meeting between these schools, with UT holding a 20-4 record in the series and an 8-1 mark at Notre Dame but the Irish winning the last four match-ups. Early on, Tennessee always had the talent advantage and used that to win the first 20 games that they met.
So, how do these teams match up this year? Let me spend a little time listing the starters and the bench for each team. I'll start with the visitors.
Tennessee Lady Vols
Tennessee has been pretty consistent with who starts depending on player injuries.
Isabell Harrison 6'3" Senior Center - She has been starting every game once she was 100% healthy. She brings the only post presence to the team and is one of two double digit scorers. She is also the leading rebounder on the team. I love her foul line jumper. She hits it with regularity. And when she is playing well, she is always one of the best players on the court. The problem is she isn't always on the court. Foul trouble has always been an issue for her. This year she is averaging one foul every ten minutes. There are games that she is taken out of the game early and it's a huge impact on how Tennessee does. And she also seems easily taken out of the game mentally. Things that she should let go seem to impact her play for extended minutes. Tennessee needs her to stay in the game mentally and physically to have a chance.
Bashara Graves 6'2" Junior Forward - Graves has started every game this year. Once thought to be one of the best power forwards in the country after her spectacular freshman season, Graves has been an inconsistent force for the Lady Vols. She has the occasional game where you think she is still that force, but there are many games she just floats thought the minutes, making a good play here and there but more than willing to defer to the other players. Similar to last season, she is averaging under 10 points and around 7 rebounds per game. After a freshman season where she averaged 13 ppg, I'm sure that the coachs and fans expected more.
Cierra Burdick 6'2" Senior Forward - There are not too many players you can say has stayed the same all four years, but Burdick is one. Ranked #4 I believe in her class, she has rarely played to that level. My thoughts are she is a little slow of foot and can't really play the 3 effectively and that is what she has had to do with Graves on the team. I've seen her get hot from the midrange and Tennessee will need that in this game.
Andraya Carter 5'9" Sophomore Guard - I love watching her play. She is similar to UConn's Williams with her athletic ability. But her basketball ability? It comes and goes. Now a particularly good shooter or passer, Carter does take care of the ball. But her claim to fame is her defense. She plays excellent on the ball defense and has an eye for the ball in the passing lanes.
Jordan Reynolds 5'11" Sophomore Guard - Reynolds is the other half of maybe the worst shooting back court in the country. But she does bring positives to the lineup. She is a big and strong guard on the defensive side. She is excellent on the break. And she is a very good passer off the dribble.
Ariel Massengale 5'7" Senior Guard - Not only is she the leading scorer off the bench, but she is the leading scorer. I'm not sure what the logic is to not start the senior, but I'm sure Warlick has her reasons. The only true 3 point threat on the team, you can bet that Notre Dame will be guard her closely on the perimeter. She is still a dynamic player on the offense, both on the break and in the halfcourt, but her defense is still the weak link in her game. She will struggle matching up with either Allen or Loyd when they are on the court.
I have watched a lot of Tennessee's games and have a pretty good feel for the rest of the bench. The six players I listed above will get most of the minutes and Middleton and Nared will split around 15 minutes. I don't believe Dunbar or Moore will see any action.
Alexa Middleton 5'8" Freshman Guard - She is a nice player. Can hit the open 3 pointer. But like UConn's Chong, she doesn't always find the room to take it. She is a real heady player. I just think this environment will be too difficult for her to excel.
Jamie Nared 6'2" Freshman Forward/Guard - I really like her game. Long and lean, she has a nice 3 point shot and is decent around the rim. It's just too soon for her to contribute at this level and in this environment.
Fighting Irish of Notre Dame
There was a clue that Muffet might change the starting lineup and I believe that would be Reimer to add some size. She might want move Cable back to the bench.
Jewel Loyd 5'10" Junior Guard - Only one of the best players in the country. Her athleticism added to her mid range shooting ability and imagination of shot makes her the dynamic player that everyone loves to watch. The only issue this season has been her low three-point shooting percentage, barely over 30%. She seems to be in a mini-slump the last couple of games.
Lindsay Allen 5'8" Sophomore Guard - This is a player that has gotten better and better every time she takes the court. When I wrote the UConn/ND preview, I gave Moriah Jefferson a big advantage over Allen but she proved me wrong with a terrific performance. Quick, smart and with an improving shot, she has AA potential by the latest her senior year.
Michaela Mabrey 5'10" Junior Guard/Forward - Once one of the top three point shooters in the country, she has been way too inconstant this year. Her percentage is under 40% and the rest of her game has deteriorated. She needs to find her old mojo to be a factor for this ND team. Defensively she has always been a liability.
Taya Reimer 6'3" Sophomore Forward - I'm sure we all know the story of her rumored transfer out of Notre Dame. It took a life of it's own on the message boards. I was caught up in it as well. It looks like they worked things out and I'm happy for Taya. Seems like a nice and very thoughtful kid. She does bring size to the table and is very capable of a double double in any game she plays. But she is also capable of throwing out a stinker on occasion.
Briana Turner 6'3" Freshman Forward - Tall, lean, long, and lethal. She is my candidate for FOY in spite of missing a few games. She can impact the game in both ends of the court. A great shot blocker and a terrific finisher around the basket. If she can increase her range, she can be unstoppable. She also runs like a gazelle. Can you tell I like her??
Madison Cable 5'11" Senior Guard/Forward - Cable is the first player off the bench. A typical ND player. Fiesty, Smart and a solid outside shooter. She was terrific in last years ND/Tennessee game. I'm sure she remembers it well.
Kathryn Westbeld 6'2" Freshman Forward - Westbeld has done a nice job and her size will be needed in this game. A terrific outside shooter so far, she has a nice game. I'm not sure she will contribute in a tough game like this, but she will see minutes.
I'm not sure the rest of the bench will see many minutes at all.
Analysis and Prediction
Tennessee won the first 20 game, ND won the last 4. So how does this game look to me?
It's a game of opposite strengths.
Tennessee has won with it's defense this year. All their defensive stats compared to last year are better. Points allowed, FG percentages, blocks, steals. But all their offensive stats are worse. Points per game, shooting percentages.
Notre Dame has, at times, been an explosive offense. Loyd is dynamic and Allen and Turner can add points in a hurry. They score a lot of points, ranked in the top 5 in the country.
So, who's strength wins out? I have to go with Notre Dame at home. Harrison is prone to foul trouble and in Purcell Pavilion I don't think she will get many calls. Without her, Tennessee will really struggle.
There are too many things that have to go right for Tennesse to win, let alone keep it close. Their guards have to hit the outside shot, their frontcourt has to stay out of foul trouble, their defense has to be able to slow down Notre Dame, their press has to cause a lot of turnovers. I just don't see it happening.
Notre Dame by 12+.
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