UConn vs Indiana
Day: Saturday
Date: March 26 , 2022
Time: 2:00 PM
Location: Bridgeport, CT
TV: ESPN
2 Seed 3 Seed
UConn Huskies Indiana Hoosiers
27-5 26-8
Indiana Season to Date
Indiana had a great start to their regular season. They were 18-3 and had only lost to at the time No. 7 Stanford 69-66, No. 2 North Carolina State 66-58 and No. 6 Michigan 65-50. But after a loss to Nebraska, their season went off the rails a bit, going 4-5 over their last 9 games including three losses to Iowa, the last one in the finals of the Big Ten tournament. A lot of those loses were when their second leading scorer and best post player Mackenzie Holmes was out with an injury. That has to be taken into consideration.
They beat 14 seed Charlotte 85-51 and then beat 11 seed Princeton 56-55 to reach the Sweet Sixteen and their battle with UConn.
Comparative Team Statistics
UConn Indiana
74.3 PPG 71.7
53.4 Defensive PPG 61.3
20.9 Scoring Margin 13.2
48.3 Field Goal % 45.4
34.8 Defensive FG% 35.9
34.5 Three Point % 33.0
28.7 Defensive 3PT% 29.5
69.6 Free Throw % 74.9
38.8 Rebounds/game 36.2
7.4 Rebounding Margin 2.0
18.5 Assists per game 14.3
14.2 Turnover per game 13.0
1.3 Assists/TO ratio 1.1
9.4 Steals per game 6.6
4.8 Blocks per game 6.4
UConn appears to have an advantage in every category except for Free Throw Shooting and Turnovers. However, according to Massey UConn's SOS is 40 and Indiana's is 6. It certainly makes a difference.
UCONN
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are clickable to see their Bios
UConn Starters
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INDIANA
Indiana Starters
Indiana is a really experienced team. They start two graduate students, two seniors and a junior. They are the highest scoring starting five in the country. And every one is a 1000 point career scorer. That's the good news. The bad news is they also play the five starters almost 90% of their minutes. Four starters have played between 34 and 37 minutes. And they only go six deep in their rotation.
The best player on the team is Grace Berger. A 6' senior guard, she is as competitive a player as you will find. I'm sure the UConn fans will appreciate this part. If you have followed my blog you have seen a bunch of Ashlynn Shade, from, yep Indiana. Berger and Shade have very similar games and attitude. Back to Berger, she is the leading scorer on the team at 16.3 PPG and does a great job rebounding from the guard spot at 6 per game. And she has a team leading 154 assists and only 82 assists. But she is not a three point threat. If Berger and Muhl are ever matched up, the ground will shake from their intensity.
Nicole Cardano-Hillary is a 5'6" grad student with a ton of experience. And she plays like it. She is the best and most prolific three point shooter on the team at 36% and has taken 128 of them. She averages 11.7 PPG. But she only shoots 42% from the field and has 82 turnovers on the season.
Ali Patberg. Sound familiar? Yes, the Notre Dame player. Injured her freshman season and limited in minutes her sophomore season at Notre Dame. Her first two season with Indiana, she was a high percentage three point shooter at 39 and 38%. But her last two season? Not so good. She was 28% last year and only 32.8% this year. She is averaging double digit scoring at 11.5 PPG and has the best assist/turnover ratio with 111 assists and only 54 turnovers.
The Hoosiers only have 2 post players in Junior Mackenzie Holmes and Senior Alexa Gurbe. Both are 6'3" forwards but they couldn't be more different in how they play.
Holmes is strong in the paint and a great finisher around the basket. She is shooting over 60% from the field and has only taken 15 three point shots (although she has made 6). She is just a really strong play with long arm. She is a decent shot blocker as well with almost 2 per game. She is the second leading scorer at 15.4 and is the best rebounder at 7 per game.
Gurbe is more of a true forward. She has taken over 100 three point shots this season and shoots a solid 34%. But she only shoots 42% from the field. She is averaging third best on the team with 11.9 PPG and grabs second best rebounds at 6.4 behind Holmes.
Indiana has only one player off the bench and that is 5'11" sophomore guard Chloe Moore-McNeil. Not an offensive thread, she brings two things to the game. She gives the starters a few minutes here and there and she is their defensive specialist. She averages only 5.4 PPG. She is kinda their "Nika". She will hit the occasional three pointer but will not contribute much in the scoring column.
Indiana is strictly a man-to-man defensive team. UConn will be so happy not to see a zone defense. The Hoosiers work well together like UConn with their switches and general help defense. But they don't really pressure the ball or double the guard bringing up the ball.
Offensively, they do a great job of screening and the guards, especially Berger, like to drive to the basket and find Holmes down low or kick out to an open shooter. Their main goal is to get to the free throw line where they shoot around 18 per game. And they make almost 75% of them.
Their weakness is their depth. Indiana can't afford foul trouble. And it's been a long season. They could get fatigued in the fourth quarter.
The Huskies will try to take advantage of their depth with plenty of player rotation. They will press and try to disrupt the Hoosier offense and to cause some turnovers. The Huskies will try to play af a fast pace but not too fast to have their own turnover issues.
UConn, playing against a man-to-man defense, will screen often, do back court cutting and pick and rolls. In watching the Indiana/Princeton game, I noticed that Princeton was able to get into the lane for pull up jumpers. I expect that Paige and Azzi will take advantage of that several times.
Final Prediction
Ok....Sweet Sixteen. UConn has had great success in this round, winning 27 out of their last 28 games. Can they do it again? I don't like them plaing against another experienced team. The Hoosiers work really well together. However, If I did a player to play matchup, UConn would have the advantage at pretty much every position. It's not that Indiana is not talented. They are. But this is a really talented UConn team.
Will the Huskies bounce back offensively from the horror show that was the UCF game? I would expect them to break 60 in this game. But the defense is where this game will be won and UConn is still playing their best defense of the season. I can't see Indiana scoring more than 50 points.
I think Paige is ready to break out. Look for her to have a big game.
Doing the math? UConn by 10+. I'm hoping for plenty on the plus side.
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