Wednesday, March 30, 2022

Doggy's UConn/Stanford Pregame Report




UConn vs Stanford
 Friday April 1 , 2022
9:30 PM  
Minneapolis, Minnesota 
ESPN





2 Seed UConn                                       1 Seed Stanford  
          Huskies                                                            Cardinal
      29-5                                  32-3

STANFORD VS UCONN 

THE HUSKIES LEAD 11-7 

Home 3-1 
Away 1-4
Neutral 7-2 

12/29/88 #9 Stanford 72, UConn 53 Stanford, Calif. 
02/20/93 #10 Stanford 68, UConn 54 Storrs, Conn. 
12/28/93 #11 Stanford 94, #4 UConn 75 Stanford, Calif. 
04/01/95 #1 UConn 87, #4 Stanford 60 Minneapolis, Minn. 
12/21/97 #3 UConn 94, #12 Stanford 78 Lakeland, Fla. 
03/27/05 #1 Stanford 76, #10 UConn 59 Kansas City, Mo. 
11/22/07 #2 UConn 66, #4 Stanford 54 U.S. Virgin Islands 
04/06/08 #4 Stanford 82, #1 UConn 73 Tampa, Fla. 
04/05/09 #1 UConn 83, #2 Stanford 64 St. Louis, Mo. 
12/23/09 #1 UConn 80, #2 Stanford 68 Hartford, Conn. 
04/06/10 #1 UConn 53, #2 Stanford 47 San Antonio, Texas 
12/30/10 #9 Stanford 71, #2 UConn 57 Stanford, Calif. 
11/21/11 #2 UConn 68, #3 Stanford 58 Hartford, Conn. 
12/29/12 #2 UConn 61, #1 Stanford 35 Stanford, Calif. 
11/11/13 #1 UConn 76, #3 Stanford 57 Storrs, Conn.
 04/06/14 #1 UConn 75, #6 Stanford 56 Nashville, Tenn. 
11/17/14 #6 Stanford 88, #1 UConn 86 (OT)Stanford, Calif. 
11/12/17 #1 UConn 78, #10 Stanford 60 Columbus, Ohio

Stanford Season to Date

Stanford opened the season with an expected blowout of Morgan State. But that didn't prepare them for the buzzsaw in at the time No.25 Texas. They lost to the Longhorns in Maples 61-56 in a shocking loss at home. They bounced back with three wins against weaker teams and a nice win against at the time No. 4 Indiana 69-66

The very next game at home against then 18th ranked South Florida, the Cardinal lost 57-54 in another shocker. They pulled it together for a 4 game winning streak starting with at the time No. 2 Maryland 86-68 and ending with at the time No. 7 Tennessee 74-63

That streak was ended by No. 1 South Carolina in a rematch of last years Final Four semi-final game in a great game 65-61. That was their last OOC game. 

Since then, in the PAC 12 games,  Stanford won 19 games in a row. Add in the 4 NCAA games and it's an amazing 23 game winning streak. 

In the NCAA tournament to date Stanford beat 16 seed Montana State 78-37, 8 seed Kansas 91-65, 4 seed Maryland 72-66 and 2 seed Texas 59-50.         
   
    Comparative Team Statistics

                                            UConn                                       Stanford

                                              74.8              PPG                       73.9
                                              54.6        Defensive PPG             56.6
                                              20.2        Scoring Margin            17.3
                                              48.2        Field Goal %                45.1
                                              35.6        Defensive FG%            34.9 
                                              34.0        Three Point %              35.5
                                              28.8        Defensive 3PT%           31.9
                                              68.8        Free Throw %              68.9
                                              38.8        Rebounds/game            42.1
                                               7.3         Rebounding Margin       9.6 
                                              18.1        Assists per game           15.3
                                              13.8        Turnover per game       13.5
                                                1.3        Assists/TO ratio             1.1
                                                9.2        Steals per game             8.5
              4.7        Blocks per game            6.3 
                                                 


*******************************************************************

Stanford





NC State Starters


 
Game Analysis

Whew, they made it!!! 14 consecutive final fours. What a great accomplishment. But that all goes out the window once the ball is tipped off the the start of this game. It's all about facing Stanford. And what a great team they are.

Their starting linup has been pretty consistent this year and certainly over the NCAA's. If the Texas game is an indication, in a close game, Tara will shrink her rotation to six players getting double digit minutes.  There are two other players that might come off the bench, but not for significant minutes. 

Stanford starts 1  big and 4 guards. 

The big is 6'4" sophomore Cameron Brink their leading scorer in only 21.8 MPG. She scores at 13.4 PPG and is the leading rebounder at 8.4 RPG. She is a dynamic player with some great skills. She can shoot from deep, just not very often, had a nice midrange game and is really tough to stop on her dirves to the basket. Defensively, she is a really good shot blocker at 2.6 per game.  So why only does she play limited minutes? Foul trouble. She averages 2.8 fouls per game and has three disqualifications including the last game against Texas. She also has 9 games with 4 fouls. On the other end of that, she gets to the line often. However, she only shoots 61.1%.  

Haley Jones, a 6'1" junior guard is a really unique player.  She is second on the team in scoring at 12.9 PPG and rebounding at 7.8  per game and also assists with 118. That's 3.68 per game. Areal triple threat player! Her advantage is her good handle with a big body. She can drive to the basket and it's really difficult to body her off without fouling. And she shoots 82.4% on free throws. She gets to the line around 4 times per game. Many games it's more. 

Lexi Hull is another 6'1" guard. The Senior is totally different than Jones. The third leading scorer at 12.7 PPG, she is slender in build with long arms. She uses her excellent three point shooting at 40.1% to set up her drives to the basket. Almost 40% of her shots are three pointers. But that is not all she can do. She has a nice post up game against smaller guards and if the defender falls for her 3 point up fake, she gets to the lane for a pull up jumper. 

Laci Hull, twin sister of Lexi is another 6'1" with long arms. What a coincidence..lol. She is just not the player her sister is. Laci averages 4.3 PPG but as more asissts, second on the team so Jones. She is a high percentage three point shooter at 40.9% but take less than half of the three point shots as her twin. Laci player really good defense, using her long arms to deflect passes.  

Anna Wilson, sister of NFL QB Russell Wilson, is the fifth starter. The 5"9" 6th year player and the only one in the rotation under 6' tall. When she announced she would be coming back for one more year, the talk out of Stanford was she would be the starting point guard. But she struggled in that role early and had to work her way back into the starting line up. She is averaging 4.8 PPG and only 2.4 assists per game. But she only has 35 turnovers, basically 1 per game. She only shoots 40% from the field and 27% on threes. She will not contibute much offensively, but I've seen her make a couple of big shots in her career.   

The bench is pretty much Hanna Jump, a 6' Junior guard and Francesca Belibi a 6'1" dunking forward. 

I know that some fans believe that Ashten Prichten a 6'5" Junior forward will see minutes, but she only averages 9.4 minutes per game. And even less in the NCAA tournement to date with 27 minutes and only 2 points total in the four games.

Hanna Jump has taken the more three pointers with 205 and shots them at 40%. Someone that UConn will hae to make sure doesn't get an open look. And she is averaging 9.3 PPG.  But she is not the best defensive player and she is clearly a casualty of a shoter leash for Tara, only averaging 12.4 MPG in the 8 PAC 12 and NCAA tournament games. She played only 8 minutes against Texas. 

Belibi is a great athelete. Only 6'1", she plays much bigger. She is averaging 7.9 PPG and 4.8 RPG and this in only 13.7 MPG. Yeah, that looks like a typo, but that is all she plays. However, she is playing 15, 19, 19 and 25 minutes in the NCAA Tournament so far. And you can see her minutes are progressing each game. Tara must like what she sees.     

Similar to North Carholina State and UConn, Stanford plays a really good man-to-man that at times it looks like a zone. That's because all three teams switch so seamlessly. And with Brink defending the rim, the Cardinal can be tough to score on. I'm sure that Tara will come up with something special to slow down Bueckers. 

Offensively, the team runs through Jones. She initiates the offense from the top of the key and either drive to the basket, backs in her defender, hits cutters in the lanes or hits her own pull up jumper. I have no idea who Geno will have cover her. She is a nightmare to match up with. Put Edwards on her like he did with Villanova star Maddy Siegrist?? Or Williams, who has the quickness and some strength to handle her? Bueckers is an underrated defender and will probably match up on Lexi Hull. That will be great to watch. 

UConn will look to get Brink in foul trouble. The best thing you can do is drive into the body of a shot blocker. And she is prone for fouling as I said earlier. Williams is a good bet to do that. You will see more of the mid-range jumpers by Bueckers and Fudd. 

I'm fascinated by the Brink/ONO matchup. Both tall, long and lean, it should be a good one.          

The wildcard to me is Carloine Ducharme. She is the one player on the UConn roster that matches up well with the two Hulls and Jump. I'd like to see it but will Geno?      

Final Prediction

This could be another great game. Hopefully not a two overtime game however this is as even a matchup as you will find. Similar teams doing similar things. It's going to come down to which team executes better. 

I have to agree with other fans that are saying this game is like playing with house money. I don't think anyone thought that this team would make it this far way back in December, January and even Feubruary. 

But there is a game to play and predict. Will it come down to the two superstars Jones and Bueckers? Or will someone else play a great game and lead their team to victory? 

Of course, I'm going to pick UConn. But it will be really really close. With foul shots MADE at the end of the game to seal the victory.....

UConn by 3+.  

 

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