3 Seed UConn Huskies 1 Seed USC Trojans 32-5 29-5
Monday, April 1st, 2024
Time: 9:00
Portland, Oregon
TV: ESPN
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Prior Match ups
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | UCONN
UCONN LEADS 2-0
H: 1-0 | A: 1-0 | N: 0-0
12/07/02 #3 UConn 68, USC 44 Hartford, Conn.
12/07/03 #1 UConn 72, USC 69 Los Angeles, Calif.
USC Overview
It's been a great and somewhat surprising season for USC. I'm sure everyone thought that Watkins would be terrific for the Trojans. But first team AA?
They ripped off ten straight wins to start the season beginning with a great win over at the time No. 7 Ohio State 83-74. The other nine games were against pretty weak opponents. They started their PAC12 season with a 71-64 loss to at the time No. 2 UCLA but three games laters avenged that loss with a 73-65 win over the Bruins. They had their worst streak of the season, losing to at the time No. 20 Utah 78-58, at the time No. 3 (What a bad ranking) Colorado 63-59 and unranked Washington 62-59 in losing 3 our of 4 games.
It was then that USC really found their footing winning 12 of their last 13 games only losing to at the time No. 18 Utah 74-68. They won the PAC12 tournament beating Arizona 65-62, then No. 7 UCLA 80-70 in 2 overtimes and then No. 2 Stanford 74-61 to win the title.
Wiinning their first three games of the NCAA tournament, they are on a 15 out of their last 16 game roll coming into the Elite Eight game.
Comparative Team Statistics
(leader in bold)
UConn USC
79.9 PPG 75.0
56.4 Defensive PPG 62.0
23.5 Scoring Margin 13.0
49.8 Field Goal % 42.6
35.5 Defensive FG% 38.5
36.2 Three Point % 35.8
28.1 Defensive 3PT% 30.4
74.9 Free Throw % 74.5
38.6 Rebounds/game 38.4
5.9 Rebounding Margin 3.2
19.6 Assists per game 15.0
12.9 Turnover per game 12.1
1.5 Assists/TO ratio 1.2
10.1 Steals per game 8.1
3.9 Blocks per game 6.1
UCONN
The player and coaches names for both teams
are clickable to see their Bios
are clickable to see their Bios
UConn Starters
UConn Injuries
OUT FOR THE SEASON
ACL
Achilles Injury
Head and Neck Injury
USC
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Game Analysis
This team begins and ends with the amazing freshman JuJu Watkins. The precocious youngster has led the team to the Elite Eight game against the Huskies. Let's break down the roster.
USC Starters
6'2" freshman JuJu Watkins is by far the leading scorer on the team at 27 PPG. I have mentioned before in my blog that she is a real volume shooter. She averages 22 shots per game. That is a lot! She has taken 310 more shots than the second leading scorer on the team. However, her shooting percentages are not good. She is shooting 40% from the field and 32% on threes. She makes her living at the foul line. She gets there 8 times per game. Three times more than anyone else on the team. And she is a very good free throw shooter at 84.7%. At 6'2" with a good handle, she is really tough to stop. She can shoot over the defender and get to the rim with her length. Watkins is second on the team in rebounding at 7.2 RPG and in assists with 110 on the season. She leads USC in blocks with 1.6 per game and steals with 2.3 per game. She is the complete package and future POY winner before her career is over.
Forbes McKenzie, a 6' Grad Student guard/forward is the second leading scorer on the team at 14 PPG. She is playing her first season at USC after transferring in from Harvard where she was team captain. She also leads the team in assists with 112. She is right behind Watkins in three pointers taken and leads in made three pointers shooting them at a very good 37.7% clip. She gets a lot of open looks with all the attention that Watkins gets. However, she is only shooting 38.5% overall. She has increased her scoring to 19 PPG in the tournament on 44% shooting and 50% on threes. UConn will have to guard her and not cheat to cover Watkins too much.
Rayah Marshall, the 6'4" junior center is a double double machine averaging 10.2 PPG and 10.5 RPG. She is a terrific shot blocker averaging 2.0 BPG. You can bet she will be getting a ton of minutes in this game. Her assignment will be Edwards. Can she handle the terrific footwork of the UConn forward? It could be the matchup that makes the difference. In the tournament, she is right on her averages of 10 and 10 so expect those numbers again in this game.
5'9" grad student guard Kayla Padilla transfered in from Penn where she was a first team All-Ivy league player. This is her first season with USC. Averaging 8 PPG, she is the best three point shooter on the team at 44.4%. The Huskies cannot leave her open for ungiarded looks from deep. She will bury them. She also has a terrific handle with 89 assists and only 28 turnovers. She is also right on her season averages, taking mostly three points shots in the tournament.
The final starter is Kaitlyn Davis, a 6'2" forward that transferred in from Columbia where she was 1st team All-Ivy league. She is playing her first season with the Trojans. She averages 6.1 PPG and is third on the team in rebounding at 5'7 RPG. She brings solid defense to the table. It will be interesting to see who she is assigned to guard. Maybe Paige? She is only averaging 4 PPG in the tournament.
I didn't know until I put this report together that USC has three starters that are playing their first season with the team after transferring in from the Ivy League. Two of them 1st team. The results on the season show a great use of the transfer portal by Coach Gottlieb.
USC Bench
The bench doesn't contribute much to the stats for USC. They mostly give the startes a few minutes of rest. And they play less and less as the competition toughens.
Taylor Bigby is a 6'1" redshirt sophomore guard. Another big guard, she will probably get the most minutes off the bench. She only saw 5 minutes against Baylor in their last game.
5'7" Kayla Williams is a senior guard. She averages 2.7 PPG. She has 1 field goal in the tournament and played only 9 minutes against Baylor.
Clarice Akunwafo is a 6'6" junior center averaging 2.2 PPG and 3.0 RPG. She is getting the most minutes in the tournament averaging 15 per game. She had 11 total blocks in the first two games but none against Baylor. She will see time guarding Edwards.
Final Prediction
I have to admit, I'm a big USC fan, but moslty because of their football team in the late 60's when I was in high school. OJ Simpson was unreal back then. That was when he was just "Juice".
As good as Watkins is, with how much she scores for the team, she is looking a little like she is hitting the freshman wall. Yeah, I know, she is still averaging 27 PPG in the tournament. But her shooting percentage is dropping and she needed even more shots to do it. For all of the post season including the PAC12 tournament she is shooting 33% from the field and 20% on threes. That looks like fatigue to me. Will it matter in this game with the adrenaline flowing? The big question is can Nika guard a bigger guard like JuJu. And can Nika stay out of foul trouble guarding her as good as Watkins is in drawing fouls.
UConn looked tired against Duke. It's been a long season and the playoffs have meant more minutes for the starters. It showed against Duke. So which team can keep it together under the pressure of getting to the Final Four in what people call the toughest game to win in the Elite Eight?
Southern Cal has excellent experience in the other four starters with three grad students and a junior in the lineup. But with a season of taking a back seat to Watkins, can they pick up the slack if UConn can keep JuJu somewhat under control? UConn spreads it out more and gets contributions from more players so it will be a challenge for the USC defense.
And as good as Watkins is, Paige is just as good if not better. And Paige certainly has the experience in big games like this one. Rayah Marshall has to continue her double double season to match up with Edwards. I like Aaliyah in this one and it could be the difference maker. Can the two freshman starters perform in the biggest game of their careers for the Huskies? Shade needs a big bounce back game.
It's going to be a close game and whoever executes down the stretch will win. I like the Huskies to do that.
UConn by 5+.
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