Doggy's UConn/Notre Dame Pre Game Report







        UCONN vs Notre Dame

Friday 

 March 30th, 2018

Place: Nationwide Arena
Columbus, Ohio 

Time: 9:00

TV: ESPN2

No. 1 Seed UConn Huskies                      No. 1 Seed Notre Dame

36-0                                                                                                         33-3

Prior Meetings

UConn - Notre Dame (36-11)

H: 17-4; A: 11-4; N: 8-3

1/18/96 W 87-64 A
2/24/96 W 86-79 H
3/5/96 W 71-54 H
2/9/97 W 72-49 H
3/4/97 W 86-77 H
12/6/97 W 78-59 A
2/21/98 W 73-61 H
3/2/98 W 73-53 N
12/8/98 W 106-81 A
3/2/99 W 96-75 N
2/26/00 W 77-59 H
1/15/01 L 76-92 A

3/6/01 W 78-76 H

3/30/01 L 75-90 N

1/21/02 W 80-53 H

1/20/03 W 72-53 A

2/23/03 W 77-59 H

1/13/04 L 51-66 A

1/12/05 W 67-50 A

1/30/05 L 59-65 H

3/7/05 W 67-54 N

2/19/06 W 79-64 A

3/5/06 W 71-60 N

1/27/07 W 64-47 H

1/27/08 W 81-64 A

2/22/09 W 76-66 H

1/16/10 W 70-46 H

3/1/10 W 76-51 A

3/8/10 W 59-44 N

1/8/11 W 79-76 A

2/19/11 W 78-57 H

3/8/11 W 73-64 H

4/3/11 L 72-63 N

1/7/12 L 74-67 (ot) A

2/27/12 L 72-59 H
3/6/12 W 63-54 H

4/1/12 L 83-75 (ot) N

1/5/13 L 73-72 H

3/4/13 L 96-87 (3ot) A

3/12/13 L 61-59 H

4/7/13 W 83-65 N

4/8/13 W 79-58 N

12/6/14 W 76-58 A

4/7/15 W 63-53 N

12/5/15 W 91-81 H

12/7/16 W 72-61 A
12/3/17 W 80-71 H

Highlights from their Last Game

Overview

   

UConn vs. Notre Dame. Again. In women's college basketball, there is other no rivalry like this right now.

While the overall advantage is 36-11 UConn, there was a period where Notre Dame dominated the rivalry. At one point Notre Dame won 7 of 8 games between April of 2011 and March of 2013. But since then, things have changed again. UConn has won the last 7 games between the two teams. 

Notre Dame beat 16 seed CS Northridge 99-81, 9 seed Villanova 98-72, 4 seed Texas A&M 90-84 and 2 seed Oregon 84-74. Their run to the final four was all against the teams that should have been there. No upsets in their bracket.      

UConn had a great regular season and now has added to excellent wins in the first four rounds of the NCAA tournament. In their first game they set all sorts of records in hammering St. Francis 140-52. That game was a total track meet and then they had to play Quinnipiac in a very different style game. The Huskies prevailed in that one 71-46 playing a very efficient game in order to move on to Albany. Once there they beat a decent Duke team 72-59. UConn was not looking like the super team like they did for most of the season. Until they met South Carolina. UConn just destroyed the Gamecocks 94-65. 

I posted the first game matchup minutes, points, rebounds, assists and turnovers for each individual player listed to play in this game below. I'll let you come to your own conclusions based on that but I will say that Lili Thompson played in that game before her season ending knee injury. She played 24 minutes and had 9 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists and was 2-4 on threes.  

Comparative Team Statistic

Leader in Bold

                                            UConn                                        Notre Dame

                                                                                 

                                              89.4              PPG                     85.6
                                              52.3        Defensive PPG          67.4

                                              37.1        Scoring Margin          18.2

                                              53.4        Field Goal %              50.4
                                              33.2        Defensive FG%         39.7 

                                              40.1        Three Point %            37.3
                                              26.9        Defensive 3PT%        34.6 

                                              77.0        Free Throw %            75.1 

                                              41.8        Rebounds/game        42.1 

                                              22.9        Assists per game       19.2 

                                              12.2        Turnover per game    13.8

                                                1.9        Assists/TO ratio           1.4

                                              10.3        Steals per game          8.3  

                                                5.2        Blocks per game         3.3

                                           

                                               UCONN                                     

UConn Starters

Geno cuts down his rotation so I will match that in my player list below. Seven deep!

24 Napheesa Collier

6'1" Junior Forward

First UConn/ND Game - 40 mins, 15 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 0 turnovers

MPG -28.5, FG% .580, 3PT% .333, FT% .784, 15.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.3 APG 

15 Gabby Williams

5'11" Senior Forward

First UConn/ND Game - 17 mins, 2 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 turnovers

MPG - 26.5, FG% .609, 3PT% .000, FT% .725, 11.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 5.3 APG 

11 Kia Nurse

6' Senior Guard

First UConn/ND Game - 33 mins, 13 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 turnovers

MPG - 32.7, FG% .528, 3PT% .449, FT% .810, 13.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.8 APG

5 Crystal Dangerfield

5'5" Sophomore Guard

First UConn/ND Game - 40 mins, 12 points, 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 turnovers

MPG - 28.6, FG% .462, 3PT% .462, FT% .806, 9.6 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 4.1 APG

33 Katie Lou Samuelson

6'3" Junior Guard/Forward

First UConn/ND Game - 28 mins, 18 points, 5 rebounds, 0 assists, 3 turnovers

MPG - 29.2, FG% .531, 3PT% .474, FT% .835, 17.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.8 APG 

UConn Bench

23 Azura Stevens

6'6" Junior Forward

First UConn/ND Game - 26 mins, 17 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 0 turnovers

MPG - 20.7, FG% .604, 3PT% .176, FT .802, 14.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.9 APG

3 Megan Walker

6'1" Freshman Guard/Forward

First UConn/ND Game - 16 mins, 3 points, 6 rebounds, 0 assists, 2 turnovers

MPG - 15.5, FG% .444, 3PT% .371, FT% .755, 5.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, .9 APG

UCONN TEAM STATS

*******************************************************************

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

 

Notre Dame Coach

Muffet McGraw

  

McGraw is considered by many the 2nd best active coach in WCBB. It's hard to argue that based on the accomplishments of her program. She is a terrific recruiter, a fine tactician and a wonderful motivator of young women. Notre Dame certainly knows that and in July 2012, she signed a landmark 10-year contract extension that will keep her coaching at Notre Dame through the 2021-22 campaign.

The past 22 seasons (1995-96 to the present) have been the most successful in Notre Dame's history.

If you want to read some terrific detail about her career, here is the link to her Notre Dame Bio.

Notre Dame Starters

  

2 Arike Ogunbowale

 5'8" Junior Guard    

First UConn/ND Game - 34 mins, 19 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assists, 3 turnovers 

MPG - 33.9, FG% .449, 3PT% .379, FT .801, 20.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.9 APG

5 Jackie Young

6' Sophomore Guard

First UConn/ND Game - 24 mins, 2 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 turnovers

MPG - 34.2, FG% .518, 3PT% .257, FT .776, 14.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 3.8 APG

Jessica Shepard

6'4" Junior Center

First UConn/ND Game - 36 mins, 10 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 turnovers

MPG - 28.7, FG% .561, 3PT% .000, FT .675, 15.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.4 APG

3 Marina Mabrey

 5'11" Junior Guard

 

First UConn/ND Game - 36 mins, 21 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 turnovers

  

MPG - 33.9, FG% .465, 3PT% .401, FT .852, 14.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4.5 APG

33 Kathryn Westbeld

6'2" Junior Forward 

First UConn/ND Game - 30 mins, 4 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 0 turnovers

MPG - 25.8, FG% .600, 3PT% .348, FT .784, 7.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.9 APG


Notre Dame Bench 

21 Kristina Nelson

 6'4" Senior Forward/Center    

First UConn/ND Game - 15 mins, 6 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assists, 0 turnovers

MPG - 15.7, FG% .624, 3PT% .000, FT .793, 5.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.6 APG

 Game Analysis

Another game between the two best programs in WCBB. Because they have played so often and so recently, you can get a better handle on how this game will turn out. Lots of familiarity there. And we do have a game that these two teams played only 3 months ago. 

Offensively, Notre Dame will play their usual motion offense no matter who is in the lineup. They set tough off the ball screens, trying to get their shooters open.  Notre Dame is going to be using every tactic they can to free their two best outside shooters. And that is Marina Mabrey and Arke Ogunbowale.

The Irish will also use the pick and roll with Nebraska transfer Jessica Shepard. They will really miss Lindsay Allen, who was excellent at this tactic. Westbeld can also find openings in the lane and is a consistent shooter from 12 feet and in but hasn't really regained her form since coming back form her ankle injury and has reinjured that recently. But she seems to be ok although it's impacted her ability to practice recently.

Notre Dame has looked to post up Shepard more recently down low. She uses her big body well to get position and finish. 

That all being said, we all know that Notre Dame is a well coached and can play like a well-oiled offensive team and they showed that against Oregon.

Much of ND's offense does come off of their defense. They are maybe the second best team in the country in turning defense into offense. Ogunbowle is deadly on the fast break although at times she tries to do too much. 

Defensively, Notre Dame uses some trapping defenses but for the most part, they will play a switching man-to-man like UConn does. In the past what they have done best is get into the passing lanes to create turnovers. But this season they average only 6 steals per game. They will miss Briana Turner, who did a nice job protecting the basket and they will hope that the big bodied Kristine Nelson can help fill the lane in her limited minutes. 

UConn will do what they do best offensively. They will run their own motion offense, looking for post entry passes to Collier, Williams and the revived Stevens. UConn will also use their defense to spark their offense. This version of UConn relies a lot on the three point shot with Samuelson, Nurse, Dangerfield, and sometimes Collier all able to hit the open three. UConn will set screens to get them open and also use their terrific ball movement to do the same.    

Defensively, look for UConn to pressure Notre Dame. Not necessarily to turn over, although that will be a big part of their defense, but more to take time off the clock forcing Notre Dame into bad shots. The Irish really don't have the a real "point guard" since the season ending knee injury to graduate student Lili Thompson, the transfer from Stanford. Mabrey has been the starting point guard. She is a decent ball handler but could have real trouble with the UConn pressure defense. I would look for UConn to run, run, and run as being the best conditioned team in the country does make a difference. 

           

Final Prediction

In the first pre game report I did a by position player comparison but with Thompson done, the matchups weren't the same.  I had UConn with an advantage in every one of my matchups and still do. Yeah, a little UConn homerism. But really, it's not that much of a stretch.

So, lets look at the first game for clues here. In that game Notre Dame had one big run, I believe it was 25-4, that gave them a 11 point lead in the with 9 minutes left in the game. Personally, I was shocked at that point. But the Huskies then shocked the Irish turning up the defense to outscore them 26-9 in the fourth quarter. I'm more inclined to think that the fourth quarter is an indicator of how this game will do than the second quarter of that game. UConn is just the better team.

Three other factors go into my prediction.

1. Lili Thompson won't be there. ND can get away without a true point for 40 minutes again almost everybody. I'm not sure they can to that against UConn.

2. Kati Lou sprained her ankle in that game and missed 12 minutes. She looks to be 100%. 40 minutes if they need her.

3. The difference maker for the NCAA's so far for UConn has been Gabby Williams. And she only played 17 mostly ineffective minutes in that game due to migraines. You can expect 40 for her as well if they need her.

Based on everything I wrote, I will stick my neck out here with a 15+ point win for UConn.