March 26th, 2018
Times Union Center
Albany, New York
Time: 7:00
TV: ESPN
Head to Head
UConn leads 6-0
UConn leads 6-0
12/17/07 W 97-39 H
12/28/08 W 77-48 A
2/9/15 W 87-62 H
2/8/16 W 66-54 A
2/13/17 W 66-55 H
2/1/18 W 83-58 A
12/28/08 W 77-48 A
2/9/15 W 87-62 H
2/8/16 W 66-54 A
2/13/17 W 66-55 H
2/1/18 W 83-58 A
Highlights from this year's first game
Team Overviews
Stat by Stat Comparison
Leader is bolded
South Carolina, to my eye, has struggled in the tournament to date. They beat 15 seed North Carolina A&T by a slim 63-52 margin and then 10 seed Virginia 66-56 and finally they beat 11 seed Buffalo
79-63. I don't know if playing three double digit seed can prepare you for UConn and I'm not sure that losing their earlier matchup with the Huskies where they lost by 25 at home can get them in the right frame of mind.
79-63. I don't know if playing three double digit seed can prepare you for UConn and I'm not sure that losing their earlier matchup with the Huskies where they lost by 25 at home can get them in the right frame of mind.
UConn had a great regular season and now has added to excellent wins in the first three rounds of the NCAA tournament. In their first game they set all sorts of records in hammering St. Francis 140-52. That game was a total track meet and then they had to play Quinnipiac in a very different style game. The Huskies prevailed in that one 71-46 playing a very efficient game in order to move on to Albany. Once there they beat a decent Duke team 72-59. UConn is not looking like the super team like they did for most of the season. Will seeing South Carolina bring out the best in them? They are due!
Stat by Stat Comparison
Leader is bolded
UCONN South Carolina
89.3 Points Per Game 75.5
51.9 Opp Points Per Game 60.3
.532 Field Goal % .472
.327 Opp Field Goal % .359
.395 3 Point Field Goal % .344
.270 Opp 3 Point Field Goal % .321
.767 Free Throw % .709
42.2 Rebounds Per Game 40.9
31.3 Opp Rebounds Per Game 33.1
22.8 Assists Per Game 15.0
12.3 Turnovers Per Game 14.2
1.9 Assists/Turnover Ratio 1.1
1.9 Assists/Turnover Ratio 1.1
10.4 Steals Per Game 7.3
5.2 Blocks Per Game 6.4
UConn clearly has the advantage in almost all of the statistics. UConn is slightly below South Carolina in blocks per game.
UCONN
UConn Starters
Geno cuts down his rotation so I will match that in my player list below. Seven deep!
24 Napheesa Collier
6'1" Junior Forward
MPG -28.4, FG% .582, 3PT% .344, FT% .804, 15.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 3.4 APG
15 Gabby Williams
5'11" Senior Forward
MPG - 26.1, FG% .603, 3PT% .000, FT% .716, 10.7 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 5.2 APG
11 Kia Nurse
6' Senior Guard
MPG - 32.4, FG% .529, 3PT% .451, FT% .810, 13.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.8 APG
5 Crystal Dangerfield
5'5" Sophomore Guard
MPG - 28.6, FG% .457, 3PT% .445, FT% .793, 9.3 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 4.0 APG
MPG - 28.6, FG% .536, 3PT% .469, FT% .838, 17.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.8 APG
UConn Bench
23 Azura Stevens
6'6" Junior Forward
MPG - 21.0, FG% .614, 3PT% .176, FT .807, 15.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.9 APG
3 Megan Walker
6'1" Freshman Guard/Forward
MPG - 15.8, FG% .446, 3PT% .382, FT% .755, 6.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, .9 APG
*******************************************************************
South Carolina
Head Coach
Dawn Staley
When three-time Olympic gold medalist Dawn Staley took the reins of the University of South Carolina women's basketball program on May 10, 2008, the Gamecocks' stature immediately rose not just in the Southeastern Conference but on the national stage as well. Nine seasons later, Staley delivered on those expectations with the program's first NCAA National Championship in 2017. South Carolina is one of seven programs in the nation to be ranked in every Associated Press Top 25 poll since the start of the 2013-14 season, and the Gamecocks boast six straight 25-win seasons, which include four SEC regular-season championships (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017), three SEC Tournament titles (2015, 2016, 2017), two NCAA Final Four appearances (2015, 2017) and three other Sweet 16 seasons (2012, 2014, 2016), the program's first ever No. 1 national ranking and a school-record 34 wins in 2014-15. Staley's success has united every demographic in the state of South Carolina as the Gamecocks' fan base tripled over a span of three seasons, and three times led the nation in home attendance (2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17).
South Carolina Starters
22 A'ja Wilson
6'5" Senior Forward
6'5" Senior Forward
MPG 29.3, FG% .539, 3PT% .416, FT% .736, PPG 22.5, RPG 12.0, APG 1.7
35 Alexis Jennings
6'3" RS Junior Foward Guard
MPG 25.2, FG% .580, 3PT% .167, FT% .744, PPG 11.3, RPG 6.7, APG 1.0
52 Tyasha Harris
5'10" Sophomore Guard
MPG 33.4, FG% .426, 3PT% .302, FT% .745, PPG 10.7, RPG 3.3, APG 6.2
4 Doniya Cliney
6'0" Junior Guard
MPG 30.3, FG% .434, 3PT% .309, FT% .708, PPG 7.9, RPG 3.2, APG 2.6
10 Bianca Jackson
6'0" Freshman Guard
MPG 30.3, FG% .392, 3PT% .398, FT% .755, PPG 7.9, RPG 3.2, APG 2.0
South Carolina Bench
21 Mikiah Herbert Harrigan
6'2" Sophomore Forward
MPG 17.0, FG% .492, 3PT% .200, FT% .768, PPG 7.3, RPG 3.7, APG .7
21 LeLe Grissett
6' Freshman Forward
MPG 13.1, FG% .470, 3PT% .000, FT% .544, PPG 4.2, RPG 3.7, APG .5
Game Analysis
I always like to use past performances against each other when looking at how games will go. I picked a closer game than when these two teams met in February. It was a home game for South Carolina so I thought that might make a difference. It didn't.
So, how will this game play out?
After a slow couple of minutes, UConn just dominated the Gamecocks. The starting five for the Huskies is just so difficult to defend. They move the ball in, out, side to side, back in, back out and do it so quickly the opponent has no chance to stop UConn from getting an open shot. The only difference between the two halves was UConn didn't his the open shots. They certainly had many of them.
I watched closely the two coaches throughout the game and I don't think I've seen Geno smile so much in that first half and conversely, I don't think I've seen Dawn Staley so passive. I think the white outfit was appropriate as she seemed to surrender to Geno's minions early in the game.
Some thought that UConn's road to success in this game would be to keep the ball out of Wilson's hands. But I think the key ended up being how difficult they made it for Wilson to get a good shot once she did get the ball. She was able to take 18 shots and made only 4 of them, a tribute to the quick defense UConn was able to slap on her. She had no chance, especially with the rest of the SC team not able to pick up the slack.
The Gamecocks have changed their game strategy since these two teams last met. Lindsey Spann, a transfer Grad student from Penn State had her year ended by injury. Staley has accepted the fact that they only have three guards and she has gone with a bigger lineup. But as she said, the team is not "right" and I believe they are short on ball handlers and they just don't know how to deal with it.
All-American A'ja Wilson is back from her ankle injury a few games ago and better than ever. SIf she gets the ball on the left side in a one-on-one situation it's Katy-bar-the-door time. UConn did a great job on her in the first game this year. They forced her into some terrible shots and I believe it got into her head.
The other returning starter is Tyasha Harris, a super sophomore point guard. She is a big point at 5'10" and is averaging a terrific 6.9 assists per game. Harris has had some big scoring games this season, but really is a distributor. She only shoots 27% on threes so UConn will probably lay off her and try to stop her penetration and dishing.
South Carolina has three new starters this year.
Alexis Jennings is a transfer from Kentucky who had to sit out last season. The 6'2" forward is a big part of the South Carolina offense. Right not she is the second leading scorer on the team at 13 points per game and adds 7 rebounds as well. She is a wide body that can score in the post with either hand. Not a great outside shooter, she likes to work the paint area. But she really struggled in the first game. She was outstanding in her last game but can she carry that through against UConn?
Doniya Cliney is a 6' wing for the Gamecocks, getting her chance in the starting lineup in her junior season. Her best quality is her defense. She does a nice job in the SC man to man on whoever she guards. But she is a liability on offense. She does have a knack for hitting big threes occasionally.
Due to the Spann injury, freshman guard 6' Bianca Jackson gets the nod as the fifth starter. She was pretty good against UConn in the first matchup. I think UConn will pay more attention to her in this one.
Off the bench, the best South Carolina player is Herbert Harrigan, the 6'2" sophomore. She has been battling a knee issue and just got back from her latest absence against Missouri this Sunday. For whatever reason, she hasn't been the player expected of her by the SC fans. Only freshman forwards LeLe Grissett will see minutes. The only guard off the bench is 5'8" sophomore Victoria Patrick but she won't see the light of day..
Offensively, you can bet that they will try to take advantage of their size and get the ball in the hands of Wilson and Jennings. My guess is that Geno will have the 5'11" Gabby Williams cover Wilson like she did in the first game. Giving up 6 inches to the talented Wilson will be her biggest challenge of the season. Wilson should be able to get her shot off so it will be more about keeping the ball out of her hands. One way is to keep the pressure on the guards to make that entry pass difficult or sag back from the shooters and front the posts. Of course, sagging back will give the shooters room to make threes but that is not a South Carolina strength.
UConn will put a ton of pressure on the guards as soon as they inbound trying to get SC to have as little time on the shot clock to set up their offense. The Huskies will also look to turn over South Carolina as they have every team. Can Jackson and Cliney will handle the pressure if UConn can keep the ball out of Harris's hands?
On offense, UConn will try to bring out both Jennings and Wilson away from the basket and then drive by them with Williams and Collier. It worked against Wilson and Coates last time they played. There is no way that the SC players can keep them in front of them. Both have a tendency to foul when the player they are guarding drives by them. UConn will have to hit a decent percentage of their threes to keep the South Carolina defense honest as Dawn will want to use their size to their advantage. It should be interesting to see how South Carolina matchups up against UConn in their man-to-man defense. I believe that Cliney will cover Dangerfield. She is the only player quick enough to even try to stay with Crystal. Harris has some size in the backcourt to cover Samuelson leaving the freshman Jackson to try to handle Nurse. None of these matchups favor South Carolina.
Defensively, UConn will try to force the ball out of Harris's hands so she isn't the one running the offense. And they will try to keep the ball out of Wilson's hands in the paint. When she does get it, UConn will double her quickly. A'ja only has around 2 assists per game, so once she gets it, she will try to score. That can play into UConn's defensive scheme. When UConn does double, it will be using players that would be guarding Harris and Cliney as both are not great outside shooters. It would be a different story if Spann was playing. It will be interesting to see how Stevens does in guarding either one of the South Carolina bigs. She could be a difference maker.
Final Prediction
UConn won the first matchup this year BIG and that was on South Carolina's home court. So how will this game play out?
The NCAA tournament is a different animal and I expect this to be closer than the 25 point margin that occurred in the first game. The big lineup could pose some problems for UConn and the Huskies are not shooting the ball well right now. Wilson really struggled in the first game this year. Can UConn keep her down and frustrated? Lots of questions.
I'm guess that UConn will still struggle some on offense and will only get to 75 points. But I can't see South Carolina scoring more than 65.
UConn by 10+.
The NCAA tournament is a different animal and I expect this to be closer than the 25 point margin that occurred in the first game. The big lineup could pose some problems for UConn and the Huskies are not shooting the ball well right now. Wilson really struggled in the first game this year. Can UConn keep her down and frustrated? Lots of questions.
I'm guess that UConn will still struggle some on offense and will only get to 75 points. But I can't see South Carolina scoring more than 65.
UConn by 10+.
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