Saturday, January 9, 2016

DoggyDaddy' UConn/South Florida PreGame Report



 
UCONN Vs. Houston
Day: Friday
Date: January 8th, 2016
Location: Tampa, Florida
Time: 5:00
TV: ESPN
 

 
                                         
 
No. 1 UConn Huskies                         No. 19 South Florida Bulls
           13-0 (3-0)                                                                          10-3 (3-0)

Prior Meetings

UConn leads the series 16-0

12/28/02 W 72-56 A
12/1/04 W 75-65 (ot) H
1/24/06 W 77-47 H
2/20/07 W 81-67 A
3/4/07 W 74-54 N
1/30/08 W 71-48 H
1/6/09 W 83-37 A
3/8/09 W 79-42 H
1/4/10 W 84-42 H
12/2/10 W 80-54 A
1/28/12 W 77-62 H
3/2/13 W 85-51 A
1/26/14 W 81-53 H
2/16/14 W 63-38 A
1/18/15 W 92-50 H
3/2/15 W 88-65 N
3/9/15 W 84-70 N

Team Overviews

UConn is coming off a strange game against Houston. They had a tough 1st quarter and were actually down 15-14. It was a case of lazy defense (I can't remember the last time I said that about a Husky team) and really bad shooting. UConn used a much improved defense to take control of the game at the half. After Houston made one last mini-run UConn went on their strongest run of the season outscoring the Cougars 35-2 over the next 11 minute. UConn defense is coming into this game giving up under 40 points in each of the last two games. 

South Florida is having a solid year. They do have 3 losses. They lost a tough November game 66-63 to No. 4 Baylor and they lost another November outing to St. John's on the road 74-70. Their third loss was to No. 7 Mississippi State in a game that wasn't as close a the ten point final margin. They have been a little Jekyll and Hyde with the St. John's loss and the close game with East Carolina along with the tough game against Baylor. The one-two punch of Courtney Williams and Alisia Jenkins are as good a due as any not named Stewart and Jefferson.       
 
Everything changes though for South Florida because Alisia Jenkins is is looking like she is going to miss the game with an ankle injury. Jenkins sat out their last game, a USF win over Southern Methodist. According to Jim Fuller, head coach Jose Fernandez said he wasn’t sure whether Jenkins would be in the lineup.

Jenkins is the leading rebounder in the AAC and second leading scorer for the Bulls. She is also the emotional leader of the team, and while she can still lead from the bench, it's just not the same.

She is so competitive, I wouldn't be surprised if she played but how effective will she be?      

 
Stat by Stat Comparison

 Leader is bolded. 
 
                         UConn                                          South Florida
 
                                           88.8         Points Per Game                     76.4
                                           51.5         Opp Points Per Game             60.8
                                           .526         Field Goal %                           .422
                                           .348         Opp Field Goal %                   .368
                                           .355         3 Point Field Goal %              .333
                                           .322         Opp 3 Point Field Goal %      .290
                                           .780         Free Throw %                         .784
                                            41.0         Rebounds Per Game               45.1
                                            29.9         Opp Rebounds Per Game       34.8
                                            21.6         Assists Per Game                   14.7
                                            12.1         Turnovers Per Game              13.5
                                              1.8         Assists/Turnover Ratio            1.1
                                            12.3         Steals Per Game                      6.7
                                              6.3         Blocks Per Game                    3.6
 
 
 
UConn Starters
 
30 Breanna Stewart 
6'4" Senior Forward

Last year against USF:
 
Game 1 - 17 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists,  5 blocks
Game 2 - 29 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 7 blocks
Game 3 - 22 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks    
 
2015-16 Stats
12 Games - MPG 30.1, FG% .592, 3PT% .432, PPG 20.6 RPG 7.9,APG 4.2, 20 steals, 35 blocks
 
3 Morgan Tuck
6'2" RS Junior Forward

Morgan sat the last game. And early on, they really missed her inside defense.

Last year against USF:
 
Game 1 - 15 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists,  2 blocks
Game 2 - 18 points, 4 rebounds, 4 turnovers
Game 3 - 17 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block    

 
2015-16 Stats
  12 Games - MPG 29.7, FG% .547, 3PT% .308, PPG 15.6, RPG 5.6, APG 3.6, 9 steals, 7 blocks

4 Moriah Jefferson
5'7" Senior Guard

  
Last year against USF:
 
Game 1 - 15 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists
Game 2 - 8 points, 2 rebounds, 4 assists
Game 3 - 14 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists    
 
2015-16 Stats
   12 Games - MPG 32.4, FG% .538, 3PT% .348, PPG 13.2, RPG 2.6, APG 5.8, 32 steals, 1 blocks

 
11 Kia Nurse
6' Sophomore Guard
     
Last year against USF:
 
Game 1 - 8 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists
Game 2 - 11 points, 3 rebounds, 9 assists
Game 3 - 0 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assists    
 
2015-16 Stats
   13 Games - MPG 28.1, FG% .439, 3PT% .318, PPG 9.8, RPG 2.3, APG 2.9, 21 steals, 3 blocks
 

24 Napheesa Collier
6'1 Freshman Forward/Guard
  
 She will be looking for more of her offense. She certainly has the skills to be a scorer. 

 
2015-16 Stats
   13 Games - MPG 20.7 FG% .472, 3PT% .000, PPG 6.5, RPG 6.5, APG .8, 29 steals, 20 blocks


UConn Bench


51 Natalie Butler
6'5" RS Sophomore Center

Getting more and more confident. Her conditioning has improved and gotta love those outlet passes. Very Wes Unseld like.


2015-16 Stats
   3 Game - MPG 16.3, FG% .625, 3PT% .000, PPG 7.0, RPG 7.3, APG 0.7, 8 steals, 4 blocks
 
12 Saniya Chong
5'8" Junior Guard

Last year against USF:
 
Game 1 - 6 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist
Game 2 - 0 points, 0 rebounds, 2 assists
Game 3 - 2 points    
 
 
2015-16 Stats
   11 Games - MPG 14.1, FG% .500, 3PT% .444, PPG 5.6, RPG 1.5, APG 1.2, 5 steals, 3 blocks
 
 
15 Gabby Williams
5'11" Sophomore Forward

Last year against USF:
 
Game 1 - 9 points, 8 rebounds, 1 assists
Game 2 - 0 points, 1 rebounds, 2 turnovers
Game 3 - 6 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assists    
 
 
2015-16 Stats
   13 Games - MPG 19.8, FG% .607, 3PT% .000, PPG 9.5 RPG 6.4, APG 1.2, 24 steals, 8 blocks 
 
 
33 Katie Lou Samuelson
6'3" Freshman Guard/Forward
 
Showing more and more facets of her game as Geno requested.

 
2015-16 Stats
   13 Games - MPG 18.7, FG% .412, 3PT% .305, PPG 7.9, RPG 3.0, APG 2.1, 10 steals, 0 blocks
 
 
22 Courtney Ekmark
6' Sophomore Guard

  
2015-16 Stats
   10 Games - MPG 10.6, FG% .611, 3PT% .500, PPG 2.9, RPG 1.3, APG .9, 2 steals, 1 block
 
20 Tierney Lawlor
5'7" Junior Guard

Played 2 minutes, didn't score, still perfect.


 
 

2015-16 Stats
  10 Games - MPG 2.9, FG% 1.000, 3PT% 1.000, PPG .9, RPG 0.1, APG 0.3, 0 steals, 0 blocks

22 Briana Pulido 
5'7" Senior Guard

 Polly had a great back door cut for a layup and a nice baseline jumper that rolled in and out of the basket against Houston.   
 
 
 
2015-16 Stats
   9 Games - MPG 2.4, FG% .250, 3PT% .167, PPG 0.6, RPG 0.0, APG 0.1, 0 steals, 0 blocks

 
*******************************************************************

South Florida Starters

 
10 Courtney Williams 5'8" Senior Guard 
   
 
2014-15: Started all 35 games, leading The American in scoring with 20.3 points per game and breaking USF's single-season scoring record with 710 points ... Scored the ninth-most points in the nation, recording 20-point games 20 different times, including a 10-game stretch of consecutive 20-points games.
 
Last year against UConn:
 
Game 1 - 23 points, 6 rebounds
Game 2 - 26 points, 5 rebounds, 6 turnovers
Game 3 - 16 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block    
 
13 games - MPG 32.4, FG% .410, 3PT% .320, PPG 21.2, RPG 8.4, APG 2.9, 19 steals, 12 blocks
  
 
 
20 Laura Ferreira 5'11" Sophomore Forward
 
2014-15: Started 32 of the 34 games she played in, only missing time to an ankle injury early in the season ... averaged 7.8 points per game and 4.4 rebounds, shooting .350 from the field and .342 from beyond the arc.
 
Last year against UConn:

Game 1 - 7 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists
Game 2 - 8 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists
Game 3 - 1 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assists  
 
   13 games - MPG 29.3, FG% .390 3PT% .310, PPG 10.2, RPG 5.2, APG 1.4, 15 steals, 5 blocks

45 Katelyn Weber 6'5" Junior Center
 
2014-15: Appeared in 31 games, starting 27 despite spending time sidelined due to illness and injury ... Grabbed 109 rebounds and scored 102 points.
 
Last year against UConn:

Game 1 - 8 points, 6 rebounds
Game 2 - 5 points, 1 rebounds
Game 3 - Only played three minutes
 
11 games - MPG 16.4, FG% .660, 3PT% .000, PPG 3.5, RPG 3.1 APG 0.3, 0 steals, 12 blocks
 
12 Maria Jespersen 6'0" Sophomore Forward
  
Appeared in 33 of USF's 35 games as a freshman, starting six ... Averaged 4.9 points per game, shooting an impressive .533 in the final two months of the season to collect half of her 162 points.
 
13 games - MPG 18.3, FG% .450, 3PT% .310, PPG 6.9, RPG 3.1 APG 0.5, 7 steals, 2 blocks

22 Laia Flores 5'7" Sophomore Guard
  
2014-15: Appeared in 24 games as a freshman, starting two.
 
13 games - MPG 17.6, FG% .310, 3PT% .007, PPG 2.1, RPG 2.0 APG 3.8, 9 steals, 0 blocks

 
South Florida Bench


33  Kitija Laska 6' Freshman Forward
  
HIGH SCHOOL: Played for the Latvian Senior National Team  as a 6-foot wing with the ability to shoot from anywhere on the floor, as well as create her own shot ... Joins USF's Laura Ferreira as another Bulls wing playing for the top team in their respective nations ... Played on Latvia's U16, U18 and U20 teams growing up, and plays on the top TTT Riga NBL women's team in the country as well, averaging almost 10 points per game against some of the best players in Europe.
 
13 games - MPG 22.8, FG% .400, 3PT% .380, PPG 11.8, RPG 1.5 APG 1.4, 7 steals, 5 blocks 

23 Shaleth Stringfield 5'6 Senior Guard
  
2014-15: Played in all 35 games, starting nine and averaging 21.8 minutes at point guard for the Bulls ... Tied a career high with 20 points against UConn in the American Athletic Conference Championship.
 
13 games MPG 20.2, FG% .330, 3PT% .420, PPG 6.5, RPG 2.5, APG 3.3, 14 steals, 0 blocks
 


11 Ariadna Pujol 6'1" Junior Guard/Forward
 
2014-15: Appeared in 27 games, averaging 3.1 points and 1.5 rebounds per game over 9.5 minutes per game ... scored a season-high nine points vs. Tulsa on Feb. 18, and added eight points against Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Tournament Quarterfinals.
 
11 games - MPG 7.3, FG% .520, 3PT% .500, PPG 2.4, RPG 1.1, APG .5, 1 steal, 2 blocks



13 Laura Marcos Canedo 5'8" Junior Guard
 
2014-15: Started 24 games, appearing in 31 and averaging 12.2 minutes per game ... Recorded 33 assists, helping USF to a 13-2 record when notching at least two assists in a game. 
 
 7 games - MPG 5.1, FG% .40, 3PT% .000, PPG .6, RPG .1, APG 1.0, 1 steal, 0 blocks


OUT FOR THE GAME
 

24 Alisia Jenkins 6'1" Senior Forward
 
2014-15: Started every game of the 2014-15 season, averaging a double-double with 12.8 points and 11.3 rebounds. Became USF's single-season rebounding leader, recording 397 career rebounds and finishing the season just 35 boards shy of 1,000 career rebounds. Notched USF's first 20-point, 20-rebound game since 1990 with 23 points, 21 rebounds in a win at Penn State. Posted five consecutive double-doubles and 23 double-doubles over the course of the season, marking the fifth-most double-doubles in the NCAA that season. Named to the American Weekly Honor Roll three times, and was the American Player of the Week on Dec. 29. Named to the All-American Athletic Conference Second Team and the 2014-15 American Athletic Conference All-Tournament Team.
 
12 games - MPG 34.6, FG% .50, 3PT% .280, PPG 12.8, RPG 13.3, APG 1.2, 12 steals, 8 blocks
 



 Game Analysis
 
  South Florida is again led this year by Courtney Williams, all AAC guard and one of the best in the country. They depend on her for so much. She leads the team in scoring and steals, 2nd in rebounds. She has taken twice as many shots than any other player on the team. And with Jenkins possibly out, even more will fall in her lap. She put up 26, 25 and 22 shots last year against UConn. She might hit 30 in this game.

The only reason she might not do that is the Bull's new weapon, Kitija Laska, their 6' freshman forward from Latvia. She is coming off a 38 point game where she shot 8-12 on threes. I loved her comment about the long range shooting - They trusted me. They gave me open looks and like here in America you say 'I just let it fly.”  I would expect her to do the same against UConn. Clearly she has the ability to make a lot of threes.     

USF relies so much on 6'1" forward, Alisia Jenkins to hit the boards and hit them hard as she averages over 13 rebounds a game. If she is out, this will be another issue for USF going against UConn's tough and big front line.

South Florida handles the ball better than they did last year where they had 90 more TO's than assists. But UConn will still pressure them as much as possible, in the full court and half court.

What USF brings is a tough and tenacious man-to-man pressure defense. They have done a great job shutting down the opposing offenses. Can this work against UConn?

As I said UConn will put a lot of pressure on the USF offense. They were terrific after that weak first quarter effort against Houston and will bring a ton of effort to this game. Without Jenkins, UConn can focus on their perimeter defense and let their frontline shut down drives to the basket. With no real post presence, UConn can let Stewart protect the rim.

Offensively, UConn should be able to dominate the paint. Stewart, Tuck and Butler will take turns posting up and without Jenkins USF will struggle to stop them. UConn has really struggled shooting the three, occasionally getting hot but with no consistency. They will keep shooting them as it's part oft heir offense and they will get plenty of open looks.    


Final Prediction
  
As I always say, it's about match ups. And without Jenkins (I've said this a lot) this should be another poor one for a UConn opponent. I just can't see USF scoring more than 60 points. UConn will wear them down and Williams will feel like she is being defended in a phone booth with no room to maneuver. The rest of the team is just not strong enough defensively to stop the UConn inside game.

What USF has going for it is the confidence of winning the last half of basketball these two teams have played. They feel they can beat UConn especially if Jenkins plays. She would keep the game much closer. So, I'll make two predictions.

UConn by 20+ with Jenkins.
UConn by 30+ without Jenkins.  
  
 

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