Monday
February 3rd, 2020
Gampel Pavilion, Storrs, Ct
7:00 P.M.
7:00 P.M.
ESPN2
No. 4 UConn Huskies No. 3 Oregon Ducks
19-1 18-2
Prior Meetings
OREGON | UCONN LEADS 3-0
H: 1-0 | A: 1-0 | N: 1-0
12/31/12 #1 UConn 95, Oregon 51 Eugene, Ore.
11/20/13 #1 UConn 114, Oregon 68 Hartford, Conn.
03/27/17 #1 UConn 90, Oregon 52 Bridgeport, Conn.
You certainly can't take anything out of these three prior games. This Oregon team is so much better than the ones UConn beat up in the past.
Oregon has had a great season to date. But just not the total domination that many thought they would bring this year to WCBB. After losing in the finals last season to Baylor and returning everyone but one player, they were clearly the pick to win it all this season. And they looked the part, winning their first six games by an average score of 93-50. Domination. Sitting at No. 1 in the polls, they ran into a very good Louisville team and were upset, losing 72-62 at home. It was a shock to everyone and as the season has played out, showed that any top team can lose to another top team. Oregon was 6-35 on threes in that game. That number stands out for two things. The low percentage of makes and the number of threes they actually took. They won their next six games by the average score of 90-48. And in a very symmetrical they lost the next game to at the time unranked Arizona State 72-66 with a total collapse in the fourth quarter stunning WCBB fans everywhere. It was the beginning of showing how competitive the PAC12 will be this season. That loss has seemed to spur on the Ducks, as they won their last 7 games, beating No. 18 Arizona 71-64, No. 3 Stanford 87-55, and in back to back games,
beat No. 7 Oregon State in a home and home weekend series 76-64 and 66-57. They are rolling into Storrs on a high and ready to take on the Huskies. Their last win was a destruction of Colorado, winning 101-53 where the amazing Sabrina Ionescu had one more triple double.
UConn certainly has had an up and down season, even with only losing to No. 2 Baylor. They have won 7 straight games since that loss, but in that streak there has been some uneven play. They only beat Memphis by 12 and UCF by 9 in games that were much closer than they should have been. They found a way to beat Tennessee with outstanding defense and I think that is starting to be this team's identity. They won their last 2 games by large margins and are looking to take that momentum into this game with Oregon.
The player and coaches names for both teams
are clickable to see their Bios
UConn Starters
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Oregon Ducks
Oregon Starters
20 Sabrina Ionescu
5'10" Senior Guard
24 Ruthy Hebard
6'4" Senior Center
00 Satou Sabally
6'4" Junior Forward
21 Erin Boley
6'2" Junior Forward
23 Minyon Moore
5'8" Senior Guard
20 Sabrina Ionescu
5'10" Senior Guard
24 Ruthy Hebard
6'4" Senior Center
00 Satou Sabally
6'4" Junior Forward
21 Erin Boley
6'2" Junior Forward
23 Minyon Moore
5'8" Senior Guard
Oregon Bench
Game Analysis
I think we all have been looking forward to this game in order to get a good look at how the season has shaped the Huskies. And this is a big game for Oregon as well if they want to regain their status as the best team in the country.
It's been an interesting season for the Ducks. At times they look like world beaters and surprisingly at times they look like a team struggling to find themselves.
Returning is all-world guard 5'10" Senior Sabrina Ionescu, who has recorded 23 career triple doubles for an NCAA record and five of those this season. She is just an amazing talent that does so much on the court. UConn will have to try to keep the ball out of her hands as much as possible, not an easy task. Ionescu, though, is not having the usual great long range shooting season like years past. In her first three seasons she shot 42%, 44% and 43% on threes. Those are outstanding numbers. This season she is only shooting 34%. BIG difference. But in the games I watched, she was able to hit some clutch threes. I wouldn't count on her shooting poorly in this game. And her game is to set up her teammates and boy, does she do a great job of that.
One player getting the benefit of Sabrina's great passing is 6'4" Senior center Ruthy Hebard. She is averaging 16 points per game and 9.7 rebounds per game. Her post game is pro ready. She knows how to get post position and can finish with either hand. And she is hard to defend once she has the ball at the foul line. She will drive hard past the defender. You can bet Ionescu will find her down low for some easy baskets. She adds a nice mid-range jumper to the mix. Olivia Nelson-Ododa will have her hands full guarding her. She is a solid defensive player but only blocks around 1 per game.
The tough match up for UConn is the versatile Junior Satou Sabally, a 6'4" forward. She has had the inside outside game that at her height, is hard to match up with. They love to post her up against the smaller player that is usually defending her. But like Ionescu, Sabally has struggled from the outside this season. It's too far into the season to call it just a slump. It might be who she is this year. In her first two years she shot 37% and 41%. This year she is at 29%. UConn will test her early. If she is on, it will be big trouble for the Huskies. Sabally is one of the top players in the country on the fast break. And I'm partial to left handed players. She will be a handful for whoever ends up guarding her.
Playing the other forward spot is 6'2" Junior Erin Boley. Do you think she is happy about her decision to transfer from Notre Dame? They sure could use her this season. Before they came to college, I liked to compare Boley with Kyla Irwin. They are the same height with very similar games. That still holds true. Boley is basically a three point shooter. Two of three shots will be a three pointer. She has not been as good as her first season with the Ducks where she shot 43% but among the starters, she is the best shooting at a 38% clip. UConn can't leave her open.
The last starter for Oregon is their only new starter, Graduate Senior Minyon Moore. A graduate transfer after three years at USC, Moore has slid seamlessly into the starting lineup for the Ducks. Her outside shooting leaves a lot to be desired at 31% on threes, but she is a solid ball handler with a 4-1 assist to turnover ratio. And she brings really good defense from her three seasons at USC to Oregon. She will be tested guarding Dangerfield.
Off the bench are the big three point threats for Oregon. Jaz Shelly, a 5'9" freshman guard has done a nice job for Oregon. She is hitting a solid 41% on threes and does a good job giving a blow to either Ionescu or Moore. Or she comes in to make a 3 guard offense. The same is true for Taylor Chavez, a 5'8" sophomore guard. She only takes good shots, shooting 53% from the field and 49% on threes. It should be interesting to see how much time they see on the court. Their defense in not their strong point.
You will see Ionescu, Hebard and Sabally play 38-40 minutes each and the other four players will split time depending on the circumstances.
Oregon plays primarily a man to man, but they sag off the player they are guarding to help in the post. To me they looked prone to allowing the quick kickout for open threes. Look for that Monday night. Nelson-Ododa will have to be looking for the double every time she gets the ball down low.
If you look at the roster, UConn actually is the more talented team. I would say the top three in totality for each team, Ionescu, Hebard and Sabally vs Dangerfield, ONO and Walker are a wash. But UConn, in my opinion, has the advantage in the rest of the rotation. If the Huskies get the "good" Williams vs the "who is she?" Williams, she could be the difference maker.
UConn will have to be playing almost exclusively man-to-man defense against the Ducks. Ionescu would pick apart a zone, she is that good. I like the match ups in that scenario, however, I'm not sure how Geno will have them guard Sabrina. If Olivia can stay out of foul trouble she is long enough to give Hebard a hard time in the post.
Final Prediction
I am so looking forward to this game. It should be a good one! Oregon is such a talented team and I'm sure the Huskies are looking to show better than they did against Baylor. It's a totally different type of matchup, I wouldn't be surprised if this game was in the 80's for both teams.
Oregon has been tested more often than UConn and has recently had a home and home against in state rival Oregon State winning both. I'm sure that hostile environment will do them good before playing in Storrs. We shall see if the Gampel environment with a loud crowd and all those banners make a difference. I believe it will and will be the difference in the game. One more thing. This will be Oregon's third game in 5 days and they had to travel from Utah on Thursday to Colorado on Saturday and now all the way across the country to Connecticut to play the No. 4 team in the country. I like UConn's chances in this one.
UConn by 5+
Awesome analysis as always!!! Thx for sharing it. As with CD’s post game interviews on the radio, I always learn something new! Luv it!!! Thx :)
ReplyDeleteGreat analysis!
ReplyDeleteGood job DD
ReplyDelete