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No. 1 UConn 34-1 No. 1 Seed |
Day: Saturday
Date: March 28th, 2015
Location: Albany NY
Time: 12:00
TV: ESPN
Texas
24-10 No. 5 Seed
Prior Meetings
UConn - 5-0
H: 1-0; A: 1-0; N: 3-0
4/6/03 W 71-69 N
1/17/05 W 73-57 H
2/12/06 W 71-58 A
3/25/08 W 89-55 N
11/17/09 W 83-58 N
Overview
It's been quite a while since these two programs met. The last time was 2009 in San Antonio Texas (Neutral court?) where the Huskies slammed the then No. 10 Texas Longhorns 83-58 in the second game of the season. This team was destined for greatness, winning all 39 games and the national championship. The last time they met in the NCAA tournament was 3/25/08, where UConn handled them easily 89-55. Here are some highlights from that game created by Phil, one of my favorite UConn fans.
None of the prior games has any bearing on how this game will go. While UConn is the same dominating force with the same coaching staff, Texas has gone through a few changes since then. The addition of Karen Aston as Head Coach has been a great hire. She has started to really turn this program around and bring it back to national prominence. If Nneka Enemkpali, their best player, hadn't been injured after 17 games, they probably would have been a higher seed and who knows who they would be playing. Probably not UConn, giving them a better chance to move ahead in the tourney.
Texas has had an interesting season. They were great early in the season when they had Enemkpali playing. She was a dominating force at times, averaging a double-double. That is a tough player to lose. The Longhorns won their first 13 games rising in the polls to No. 3 in week nine. They were 15-2 with her and then lost to Baylor in the game she was injured after 12 minutes of play. They were 1-5 over the next six games, winning only a crazy double overtime game against Oklahoma dropping out of the top 25 in week 14. It seemed that over the rest of the regular season, the Big 12 tourney and now the NCAA tourney they have found their bearings winning 9 games and only losing to at West Virginia in OT and to Baylor in the Big 12 final.
They beat California 73-70 in a hard fought affair propelling them to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in 11 years. The Long Horns were led by Imani McGee-Stafford, their 6'7" center, who dominated the post with 20 points and 11 rebounds. She only blocked one shot but she altered many others. Kelsey Lang, their 6'5" post presence came off the bench for 15 points, 6 rebounds and 2 blocks to compliment McGee-Stafford. They played a lot together giving Texas a twin tower look. Brooke McCarty, their freshman point guard had a terrific game with 16 points in 17 minutes, making several clutch plays at the end of the game.
UConn is coming off a total decimation of an injury plagued Rutgers team. I'm not saying that having their starting point guard and Big Ten player of the year, Syessense Davis available and Rachel Hollivay being 100% would have made a difference in the results. Injuries are part of the game. But UConn played so well, it's hard to imagine a different outcome. KML was hot from beyond the arc as was Jefferson. Even with a sub-par Stewart, UConn was just too good for RU.
UConn is now on a 33 game winning streak. Here are the stats for both teams. I bolded the categories that UConn leads the nation. They lead the nation in 9 of the 15 different categories.
Comparative Team Statistic
UConn Texas
89.7 PPG 68.1
47.5 Defensive PPG 58.9
47.5 Defensive PPG 58.9
42.3 Scoring Margin 9.2
54.4 Field Goal % 42.7
30.0 Defensive FG% 38.5
30.0 Defensive FG% 38.5
40.7 Three Point % 29.8
26.2 Defensive 3PT% 29.8
71.6 Free Throw % 68.826.2 Defensive 3PT% 29.8
44.3 Rebounds/game 42.2
13.4 Rebounding Margin 9.2
21.8 Assists per game 15.1
12.5 Turnover per game 16.2
1.7 Assists/TO ratio .9
10.3 Steals per game 7.3
8.0 Blocks per game 4.6
UConn Starters
11 Kia Nurse 6' Freshman Guard
Game 1 vs SFB - 26 min, 12 pts, 3 reb, 2 asts, 1 blk, 2 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 27 min, 8 pts, 3 reb, 1 asts, 3 stl, 1 to
Nurse appears to be back on track based on her two NCAA tourney games. She is confident again and in both games, took and made the first basket of the game for UConn, both time with three point shots. Her defense continues to be exceptional, especially for a 1st year player.
MPG 24.7, FG% .504, 3PT% .412, PPG 10.5, RPG 3.2, APG 3.1, 52 steals, 2 block
4 Moriah Jefferson 5'7" Junior Guard
Game 1 vs SFB - 22 min, 5 pts, 3 reb, 5 asts, 2 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 34 min, 19 pts, 4 reb, 5 asts, 1 stl, 2 to
Jefferson appeared to be 100% after the collision in the SFB game which appears to slow her down a little and limit her minutes in that game. She was just terrific against Rutgers, hitting 3-4 three point shots. When she is on, the opposing team has no chance.
MPG 27.7, FG% .586, 3PT% .511, PPG 12.0, RPG 2.9, APG 4.8, 89 steals, 5 blocks
23 Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis 5'11" Senior Forward
Game 1 vs SFB - 16 min, 2 pts, 3 reb, 1 asts, 0 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 32 min, 23 pts, 2 reb, 4 asts, 1 stl, 1 blk, 3 to
The new sneaker/taping story will be one that goes down in UConn lore. It's hard to believe that really happened. Thankfully for UConn, she bounced back with a terrific performance against Rutgers, hitting several early threes to set the pace. She is now only 6 three point shots made from tying the NCAA record. It's within reach in this game with how well she shoots and the fact that Texas plays primarily zone defense.
MPG 28.1, FG% .533, 3PT% .498, PPG 15.0, RPG 4.2, APG 2.7, 36 steals, 10 blocks
3 Morgan Tuck 6'2" Sophomore Forward
Game 1 vs SFB - 29 min, 26 pts, 3 reb, 8 asts, 1 stl, 2 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 29 min, 16 pts, 7 reb, 7 asts, 1 stl, 3 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 29 min, 16 pts, 7 reb, 7 asts, 1 stl, 3 to
The most consistent performer for the two games for UConn. She was just so solid. Not only did she lead the team in scoring with a 21 ppg average, she led the team in assists averaging 7.5 for the two game. WOW. She not only has her sights set on winning another National Championship, I think she wants a piece of the MVP trophy.
MPG 24.3, FG% .607, 3PT% .254, PPG 14.0, RPG 5.4, APG 2.9, 28 steals, 12 blocks
30 Breanna Stewart 6'4" Junior Forward
Game 1 vs SFB - 30 min, 17 pts, 10 reb, 5 asts, 1 stl, 2 blk, 3 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 20 min, 8 pts, 2 reb, 4 asts, 1 stl, 2 blk, 2 to
Great first game then SMASH. A face to face collision less than two minutes into the game. While it didn't seem to impact her game right away, her two fouls early put her on the bench for the rest of the first half. She never did seem herself. I would expect her to bounce back like Jefferson and KML did after their subpar games. It's getting close to "Stewie time".
MPG 27.3, FG% .538, 3PT% .305, PPG 17.1, RPG 7.2, APG 3.2, 54 steals, 89 blocks
UConn Bench
41 Kiah Stokes 6'3" Senior Center
Game 1 vs SFB - 20 min, 2 pts, 10 reb, 2 asts, 6 blk, 1 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 12 min, 4 pts, 8 reb, 1 asts, 2 blk, 2 to
Stokes keeps doing what they need her to do. Rebound and defend. She is leading the team in rebounds in only 32 minutes. You will probably see more of her in this game helping out Stewart and Tuck in guarding the two big Texas post players. She played well against Griner and Williams in the past. I see no reason she won't do the same in this game.
MPG 18.9, FG% .542, 3PT% .500, PPG 4.6, RPG 7.1, APG .9, 17 steals, 140 blocks
Game 1 vs SFB - 27 min, 8 pts, 3 reb, 2 asts, 3 stl, 2 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 18 min, 2 pts, 4 reb, 0 asts, 0 stl, 1 to
Chong is getting plenty of minutes and that is always a sign on how Geno feels about her play. She did have a couple of missed assignments that makes him crazy, but overall her play is what you want from your backup guard. Give the starters a rest, defend and keep the offense moving. She did fine with that.
MPG 20.2, FG% .475, 3PT% .374, PPG 6.0, RPG 2.1, APG 2.1, 24 steals, 8 blocks
15 Gabby Williams 5'11" Freshman Guard
Game 1 vs SFB - 14 min, 15 pts, 6 reb, 0 asts, 1 stl, 1 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 19 min, 11 pts, 10 reb, 1 asts, 2 stl, 1 to
A star in the making is just about there. The only player on the team other than Tuck with double digit scoring in both games, Williams is just a joy to watch. Her leaping ability is just jaw dropping at times. She can gather the offensive rebound and put the ball in the basket before the opposing team can jump the first time. And now they are looking for the mismatch underneath with lob passes and she is getting close to making that play regularly.
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 19 min, 11 pts, 10 reb, 1 asts, 2 stl, 1 to
A star in the making is just about there. The only player on the team other than Tuck with double digit scoring in both games, Williams is just a joy to watch. Her leaping ability is just jaw dropping at times. She can gather the offensive rebound and put the ball in the basket before the opposing team can jump the first time. And now they are looking for the mismatch underneath with lob passes and she is getting close to making that play regularly.
MPG 16.6, FG% .646, 3PT% .000, PPG 9.1, RPG 6.2, APG 1.4, 46 steals, 13 blocks
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Head Coach Karen Aston
Texas Starters
34 Imani Maggie-Stafford 6'7" Junior Center
Game 1 vs W. Kentucky - 30 min, 24 pts, 15 reb, 2 asts, 1 stl, 1 blk, 1 to
Game 2 vs California - 31 min, 20 pts, 11 reb, 0 asts, 0 stl, 1 blk, 1 to
Game 2 vs California - 31 min, 20 pts, 11 reb, 0 asts, 0 stl, 1 blk, 1 to
2014-15: MPG 18.0, FG% .564, 3PT% .000, PPG 10.0, RPG 7.1, APG 0.6, 19 steals, 51 blocks
01 Empress Davenport 5'7" Junior Guard
Game 1 vs W. Kentucky - 28 min, 7 pts, 3 reb, 4 asts, 0 stl, 0 blk, 2 to
Game 2 vs California - 31 min, 11 pts, 5 reb, 5 asts, 2 stl, 0 blk, 7 to
Game 2 vs California - 31 min, 11 pts, 5 reb, 5 asts, 2 stl, 0 blk, 7 to
2014-15: MPG 24.2, FG% .358, 3PT% .103, PPG 7.3, RPG 3.5, APG 2.6, 13 steals, 3 blocks
32 Brady Sanders 5'11" Junior Guard
Game 1 vs W. Kentucky - 37 min, 9 pts, 5 reb, 5 asts, 0 stl, 0 blk, 5 to
Game 2 vs California - 35 min, 4 pts, 1 reb, 7 asts, 0 stl, 0 blk, 0 to
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2014-15: MPG 29.9, FG% .357 3PT% .315, PPG 7.3, RPG 3.2, APG 3.2, 27 steals, 3 blocks
02 Celina Rodrigo 5'8" Junior Guard
Game 1 vs W. Kentucky - 18 min, 0 pts, 3 reb, 4 asts, 0 stl, 0 blk, 2 to
Game 2 vs California - 19 min, 2 pts, 5 reb, 2 asts, 0 stl, 0 blk, 3 to
2014-15: MPG 14.5, FG% .314, 3PT% .333, PPG 2.2, RPG 2.1 APG 2.3, 20 steals, 0 blocks
20 Brianna Taylor 5'9" Sophomore Guard
Game 1 vs W. Kentucky - 13 min, 8 pts, 1 reb, 0 asts, 0 stl, 0 blk, 1 to
Game 2 vs California - 15 min, 0 pts, 0 reb, 0 asts, 2 stl, 0 blk, 0 to
2014-15: MPG 17.9, FG% .440, 3PT% .500 (1-2), PPG 5.9, RPG 4.3, APG 1.2, 30 steals, 1 block
Texas Bench
40 Kelsey Lang 6'5" Sophomore Center
Game 1 vs W. Kentucky - 21 min, 2 pts, 11 reb, 0 asts, 0 stl, 1 blk, 2 to
Game 2 vs California - 34 min, 14 pts, 6 reb, 0 asts, 2 stl, 2 blk, 1 to
Game 1 vs W. Kentucky - 21 min, 2 pts, 11 reb, 0 asts, 0 stl, 1 blk, 2 to
Game 2 vs California - 34 min, 14 pts, 6 reb, 0 asts, 2 stl, 2 blk, 1 to
2014-15: MPG 27.1, FG% .552, 3PT% .000, PPG 10.7, RPG 6.4, APG .8, 21 steals, 47 blocks
11 Brooke McCarty 5'4" Freshman Guard
Game 1 vs W. Kentucky - 25 min, 10 pts, 3 reb, 0 asts, 1 stl, 3 to
Game 2 vs California - 17 min, 16 pts, 2 reb, 1 asts, 2 stl, 0 blk, 1 to
2014-15: MPG 23.3, FG% .380, 3PT% .340, PPG 7.1, RPG 2.6, APG 1.5, 32 steals, 6 blocks
24 Arial Adkins 5'11" Freshman Guard
Game 1 vs W. Kentucky - 19 min, 6 pts, 5 reb, 0 asts, 0 stl, 0 blk, 1 to
Game 2 vs California - 13 min, 6 pts, 2 reb, 0 asts, 1 stl, 0 blk, 0 to
2014-15: MPG 23.9, FG% .368, 3PT% .296, PPG 9.7, RPG 3.4, APG 1.3, 32 steals, 7 blocks
Game Analysis
I listed each players stat line for the first two games of the tourney and also the YTD stats. You can really get a good feel on how players are doing, although with Stewart, Jefferson and KML, you have one game for each of them where they performed under their usual level. All three had to do with a slight injury. Stewart with the collision in the RU game, Jefferson with her collision in the SFB game and the bad tape job and new shoe issue with KML. You just never know. And I don't know if there were issues preventing any Texas players from performing at their peak.
What is clear in looking at the Texas games in the NCAA is that McGee-Stafford is playing at an exceptionally high level. At 6'7" she can dominate the paint and now she is more aggressive with her offense. She missed the first 7 games of the season and was brought along slowly, not hitting 20 minutes in a game until the end of January. With 34 and 31 minutes in the last two games, she appears to be 100% with her fitness. She is playing so well, it forced Coach Aston to put her in the starting lineup and move 6'5" Kelsey Lang to the bench. Aston also moved her two freshman guards, McCarty and Adkins to the bench. Coach Aston's reasoning was that the freshman struggled in the Big 12 tourney and she wanted to take the pressure off them. McCarty actually verbalized her being nervous in that tournament. The moves seemed to work, as the players and the team as a whole responded well to the changes. McCarty had a terrific game against California. She reminds me of South Carolina's Bianca Cuevas. Small and quick, but McCarty seems to play more under control. Brady Sanders seems to be the glue type player for this team, controlling the ball and getting it to the right player at the right time. If you thought Dolson's purple hair was something wait until you see her red hair!!! It's "interesting".
Every time I see a discussion about Texas, I see folks talking about how their height could be a big problem for UConn. They certainly have two very skilled big players. But until the California game, they rarely player together. In that game, McGee-Stafford played 31 minutes and Lang played 34. Texas always had at least one of them on the court at the same time. That means that Lang played 9 minutes without McGee-Stafford and McGee-Stafford played 6 minutes without Lang on the court. Doing the math, Texas played the twin tower look 25 minutes. I think UConn will see that for at least that many minutes. That being said, other than those two players, Texas goes 5'11", 5'11", 5'9", 5'8, 5'7 and 5'4". For at least 15 minutes against UConn, they will have four of those guards on the court at the same time. That is big trouble for Texas.
Texas will play predominately a zone defense. I saw them play a 2/3 and a 1/3/1 at times. They went to man-to-man on inbound plays under the opposing teams basket, but switched to a zone as soon as they could. With the two bigs on the court for much of the game, the zone makes sense. There is no way that McGee-Stafford can cover either Tuck or Stewart. Lang is not quick enough either.
Against this defense, UConn will run their offense, swinging the ball around the zone until they find an open shot. I'm sure Tuck and Stewart will be flashing in the post looking for the ball and like the BYU game last year when Jennifer Hamson blocked six shots including a few of Dolsons, Texas has McGee- Stafford to do the same thing. She will get her share of blocks. But it will be UConn's outside shooting that opens up the game. I saw California get plenty of three point looks, so UConn will get theirs. Jefferson will be able to dribble drive into the teeth of the zone for kickouts to open shooters. Because Texas only has to post players, when UConn has a big advantage at the 3 with KML. When Williams is in, she will have a field day off the board. I'd look for another double- double for Gabby.
On offense, Texas will be looking to score in the post. Against California, they scored 46 of 73 points in the paint. They don't shoot well from beyond the arc. Against California they were 1-8. The four three point shooters on the team are Sanders (35-111,31%), McCarty (36-106,34%), Ariel Adkins (16-54,29%) and Celina Rodrigo (14-42,33%). They don't shoot a lot and they make even less. They do like to get out on the break and will look to run whenever they can. Once in the half court they will try to feed the post.
UConn will play it's usual pressure defense and when the two freshman guards are in, you can bet they will see defense like they've never seen before. UConn will swarm the guards and then double in the post. Neither center for Texas is particularly good at passing out of the posts so UConn can double without much consequence. UConn will bring in Stokes plenty to help out in defending the paint. Texas has a team assist / turnover ratio under 1. This is not a good thing for a team to have when facing a great defense like UConn.
Final Prediction
I watched the California game and came away pretty unimpressed with Texas. And California. Either one would have big trouble against UConn. If either of Texas post has any foul trouble, UConn could run away from the Longhorns. The Texas guards are good players, but UConn is so much better at that position. And the front court for Texas, while difficult for some teams to deal with, will struggle against UConn's size and strength underneath. Give Geno several days to review film and it's a nightmare for Texas. If the players were nervous at all in the Big 12 tourney, I can't imagine how they will be with UCONN lined up across from them.
One thing I didn't mentioned is foul trouble. If either post player for Texas gets in foul trouble, this game could get out of hand quickly.
I don't think Texas has the defense to slow down UConn, so I'm looking for 85-90 points for them. And I can't see Texas scoring more than 50-55 points against this incredible UConn defense.
That means a low of a 30 point margin and a high of a 40 point margin. I'll split the difference and go with UConn by 35+.
One thing I didn't mentioned is foul trouble. If either post player for Texas gets in foul trouble, this game could get out of hand quickly.
I don't think Texas has the defense to slow down UConn, so I'm looking for 85-90 points for them. And I can't see Texas scoring more than 50-55 points against this incredible UConn defense.
That means a low of a 30 point margin and a high of a 40 point margin. I'll split the difference and go with UConn by 35+.
Good analysis. I see UConn by about 25. Massey has UConn by 27.5
ReplyDeleteThanks as always, DD !! I just want a win with no injuries :)
ReplyDeletethank you!
ReplyDelete