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No. 1 UConn 34-1 No. 1 Seed |
UCONN vs Dayton
Day: Monday
Date: March 30th, 2015
Location: Albany NY
Time: 7:00
TV: ESPN
Dayton
28-6 No. 7 Seed
Overview
UConn and Dayton have only met once and that was in Storrs in 2011. It wasn't close as UConn crushed Dayton 78-38. UConn was led by then freshman Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis who score 23 points and hit 6-8 three point shots in what was a vision of what we would see for four years. Stokes also played in that game, playing 12 minutes, adding 2 points, 3 rebounds, 1 block and 3 steals. Dayton also had two players in that game that are playing in Monday's game. Andrea Hoover started as a freshman in that game playing 23 minutes. She had 2 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists and 5 turnovers. Ally Mallot came off the bench and played 22 minutes. She had 3 points, 1 rebounds and 3 turnovers. All four players have come a long way since then. This game was UConn's record setting 89th consecutive home win. They would extend that streak to 99 before losing to St. Johns in Gample.
Dayton has had a great season but it sure didn't start out that way. They lost 3 of their first four games including one to 18th ranked Iowa State. Since that game, they have only lost 3 games and all three were against 21st ranked George Washington. Apparently the Colonials have their number.
Dayton has had a terrific tournament. They beat 10 seed Iowa State in the first round 78-66, 2 seed Kentucky in a great game if you like offense 99-94, and Saturday in the Sweet Sixteen they handled 3 seed Louisville, 82-66 outscoring the Cardinals 27-13 over the last 8 minutes. I was able to watch the first 20 minutes of the game in person and I really though Louisville would be too athletic and physical for Dayton, but the Flyers were able to handle that and more. Their ability to find the open shot was tremendous.
UConn played as good a game as I have seen all season long. Texas is not a bad team and they looked like a JV squad playing the Varsity. When four different players hit three point shots in the first three minutes of the second half, you know something special is happening. UConn forced Texas to abandon their twin tower approach that they tried to use. The Texas guards looked slow and the bigs looked out of shape against the intense UConn pressure. Geno has stopped trying to improve the team and is just trying to keep the momentum going. It's why he played the starters so many minutes. He knows they will carry the day.
Dayton has had a great season but it sure didn't start out that way. They lost 3 of their first four games including one to 18th ranked Iowa State. Since that game, they have only lost 3 games and all three were against 21st ranked George Washington. Apparently the Colonials have their number.
Dayton has had a terrific tournament. They beat 10 seed Iowa State in the first round 78-66, 2 seed Kentucky in a great game if you like offense 99-94, and Saturday in the Sweet Sixteen they handled 3 seed Louisville, 82-66 outscoring the Cardinals 27-13 over the last 8 minutes. I was able to watch the first 20 minutes of the game in person and I really though Louisville would be too athletic and physical for Dayton, but the Flyers were able to handle that and more. Their ability to find the open shot was tremendous.
UConn played as good a game as I have seen all season long. Texas is not a bad team and they looked like a JV squad playing the Varsity. When four different players hit three point shots in the first three minutes of the second half, you know something special is happening. UConn forced Texas to abandon their twin tower approach that they tried to use. The Texas guards looked slow and the bigs looked out of shape against the intense UConn pressure. Geno has stopped trying to improve the team and is just trying to keep the momentum going. It's why he played the starters so many minutes. He knows they will carry the day.
Comparative Team Statistics
UConn Dayton
90.2 PPG 77.6
47.6 Defensive PPG 64.9
47.6 Defensive PPG 64.9
42.5 Scoring Margin 11.8
54.4 Field Goal % 44.4
30.0 Defensive FG% 36.2
30.0 Defensive FG% 36.2
40.8 Three Point % 38.0
26.2 Defensive 3PT% 29.2
72.2 Free Throw % 74.426.2 Defensive 3PT% 29.2
44.2 Rebounds/game 42.3
13.2 Rebounding Margin 4.8
21.8 Assists per game 14.1
12.3 Turnover per game 15.9
1.8 Assists/TO ratio .9
10.3 Steals per game 7.0
8.1 Blocks per game 5.4
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UConn Starters
11 Kia Nurse 6' Freshman Guard
Game 1 vs SFB - 26 min, 12 pts, 3 reb, 2 asts, 1 blk, 2 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 27 min, 8 pts, 3 reb, 1 asts, 3 stl, 1 to
Game 3 vs Texas - 28 min, 13 pts, 0 reb, 1 asts, 2 stl, 0 to
MPG 24.7, FG% .502, 3PT% .410, PPG 10.5, RPG 3.1, APG 3.0, 54 steals, 2 block
4 Moriah Jefferson 5'7" Junior Guard
Game 1 vs SFB - 22 min, 5 pts, 3 reb, 5 asts, 2 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 34 min, 19 pts, 4 reb, 5 asts, 1 stl, 2 to
Game 3 vs Texas - 34 min, 25 pts, 4 reb, 6 asts, 3 stl, 2 to
MPG 27.9, FG% .596, 3PT% .520, PPG 12.4, RPG 2.9, APG 4.9, 92 steals, 5 blocks
23 Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis 5'11" Senior Forward
Game 1 vs SFB - 16 min, 2 pts, 3 reb, 1 asts, 0 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 32 min, 23 pts, 2 reb, 4 asts, 1 stl, 1 blk, 3 to
Game 3 vs Texas - 23 min, 10 pts, 3 reb, 2 asts, 1 stl, 2 blk, 0 to
MPG 28.1, FG% .528, 3PT% .491, PPG 14.8, RPG 4.2, APG 2.7, 37 steals, 12 blocks
3 Morgan Tuck 6'2" Sophomore Forward
Game 1 vs SFB - 29 min, 26 pts, 3 reb, 8 asts, 1 stl, 2 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 29 min, 16 pts, 7 reb, 7 asts, 1 stl, 3 to
Game 3 vs Texas - 24 min, 14 pts, 5 reb, 2 asts, 1 stl, 0 blk, 1 to
MPG 24.3, FG% .605, 3PT% .270, PPG 14.0, RPG 5.4, APG 2.9, 29 steals, 12 blocks
30 Breanna Stewart 6'4" Junior Forward
Game 1 vs SFB - 30 min, 17 pts, 10 reb, 5 asts, 1 stl, 2 blk, 3 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 20 min, 8 pts, 2 reb, 4 asts, 1 stl, 2 blk, 2 to
Game 3 vs Texas - 31 min, 31 pts, 12 reb, 7 asts, 2 stl, 3 blk, 1 to
MPG 27.4, FG% .543, 3PT% .318, PPG 17.5, RPG 7.3, APG 3.2, 56 steals, 92 blocks
UConn Bench
41 Kiah Stokes 6'3" Senior Center
Game 1 vs SFB - 20 min, 2 pts, 10 reb, 2 asts, 6 blk, 1 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 12 min, 4 pts, 8 reb, 1 asts, 2 blk, 2 to
Game 3 vs Texas - 19 min, 4 pts, 7 reb, 0 asts, 1 stl, 4 blk, 0 to
MPG 18.9, FG% .549, 3PT% .500, PPG 4.6, RPG 7.1, APG .9, 18 steals, 144 blocks
Game 1 vs SFB - 27 min, 8 pts, 3 reb, 2 asts, 3 stl, 2 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 18 min, 2 pts, 4 reb, 0 asts, 0 stl, 1 to
Game 3 vs Texas - 10 min, 3 pts, 1 reb, 1 asts, 2 stl, 0 blk, 0 to
MPG 19.9, FG% .470, 3PT% .366, PPG 5.9, RPG 2.0, APG 2.1, 26 steals, 8 blocks
15 Gabby Williams 5'11" Freshman Guard
Game 1 vs SFB - 14 min, 15 pts, 6 reb, 0 asts, 1 stl, 1 to
Game 2 vs Rutgers - 19 min, 11 pts, 10 reb, 1 asts, 2 stl, 1 to
Game 3 vs Texas - 13 min, 2 pts, 6 reb, 2 asts, 0 stl, 1 blk, 2 to
MPG 16.5, FG% .638, 3PT% .000, PPG 8.9, RPG 6.2, APG 1.4, 46 steals, 14 blocks
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Head Coach Jim Jabir
From the Dayton site - Since taking over as Dayton's head coach in 2003, Jim Jabir is the all-time wins leader in program history. He has earned a mark of 210-133 at UD and is 430-356 in his 27-year head coaching career. With five consecutive NCAA appearances (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014), two Women's National Invitation appearances, back-to-back Atlantic 10 Final appearances, the program's first A-10 Women's Basketball Tournament Championship in 2012, followed by the program's first A-10 Regular Season Champion in 2013 after posting a perfect 14-0 record in conference play. In 2014, Jabir led the Flyers to another A-10 regular season championship and to the first round in the NCAA tournament. Add to that the 22 A-10 All-Conference performers under his belt while at the helm of the Flyers, Jabir has undoubtedly led the University of Dayton to its most successful stint in modern program history.
Dayton Starters
24 Andrea Hoover 5'9" Senior Guard
Game 1 vs Iowa State - 40 min, 20 pts, 6 reb, 2 asts, 2 stl, 1 blk, 2 to
Game 2 vs Kentucky - 26 min, 5 pts, 1 reb, 0 asts, 0 blk, 3 to
Game 3 vs Louisville - 40 min, 26 pts, 5 reb, 5 asts, 1 stl, 4 to
2014-15: MPG 33.6, FG% .428, 3PT% .452, PPG 17.6, RPG 6.3, APG 3.2, 54 steals, 10 blocks
11 Ally Malott 6'4" Senior Forward
Game 1 vs Iowa State - 38 min, 18 pts, 12 reb, 3 asts, 1 stl, 3 blk, 1 to
Game 2 vs Kentucky - 36 min, 28 pts, 13 reb, 2 asts, 0 stl, 0 blk, 6 to
Game 3 vs Louisville - 33 min, 9 pts, 7 reb, 1 asts, 1 stl, 1 blk, 3 to
2014-15: MPG 30.3, FG% .510, 3PT% .398, PPG 15.5, RPG 7.9, APG 1.6, 29 steals, 28 blocks
12 Jodie Cornelie-Sugmundova 6'4" Junior Center
Game 1 vs Iowa State - 19 min, 5 pts, 2 reb, 0 asts, 0 stl, 0 blk, 0 to
Game 2 vs Kentucky - 27 min, 9 pts, 8 reb, 2 asts, 0 stl, 6 blk, 0 to
Game 3 vs Louisville - 30 min, 12 pts, 11 reb, 0 asts, 0 stl, 4 blk, 2 to
2014-15: MPG 21.5, FG% .383, 3PT% .222, PPG 5.8, RPG 6.1, APG 0.8, 14 steals, 91 blocks
22 Kelly Austria 6'0" Junior Guard
Game 1 vs Iowa State - 39 min, 11 pts, 8 reb, 1 asts, 2 stl, 1 blk, 1 to
Game 2 vs Kentucky - 38 min, 17 pts, 4 reb, 3 asts, 0 stl, 3 blk, 3 to
Game 3 vs Louisville - 37 min, 10 pts, 3 reb, 1 asts, 1 stl, 0 blk, 3 to
2014-15: MPG 29.1, FG% .436, 3PT% .314, PPG 9.8, RPG 2.7 APG 1.8, 55 steals, 14 blocks
14 Jenna Burdette 5'8" Freshman Guard
Game 1 vs Iowa State - 17 min, 4 pts, 0 reb, 0 asts, 1 stl, 0 blk, 0 to
Game 2 vs Kentucky - 20 min, 7 pts, 2 reb, 2 asts, 1 stl, 0 blk, 5 to
Game 3 vs Louisville - 24 min, 6 pts, 5 reb, 0 asts, 1 stl, 0 blk, 3 to
2014-15: MPG 23.0, FG% .405, 3PT% .348, PPG 5.7, RPG 2.4 APG 2.9, 28 steals, 5 blocks
Dayton Bench
2 Amber Dean 5'9" Junior Guard
Game 1 vs Iowa State - 24 min, 7 pts, 1 reb, 4 asts, 1 stl, 1 blk, 1 to
Game 2 vs Kentucky - 29 min, 23 pts, 4 reb, 4 asts, 0 stl, 0 blk, 2 to
Game 3 vs Louisville - 20 min, 15 pts, 1 reb, 1 asts, 0 stl, 0 blk, 3 to
2014-15: MPG 21.7, FG% .484 3PT% .390, PPG 10.7, RPG 3.6, APG 1.9, 18 steals, 8 blocks
55 Saicha Grant-Allen 6'5" Sophomore Center
Game 1 vs Iowa State - 24 min, 13 pts, 3 reb, 0 asts, 0 stl, 0 blk, 2 to
Game 2 vs Kentucky - 16 min, 6 pts, 5 reb, 0 asts, 0 stl, 0 blk, 1 to
Game 3 vs Louisville - 16 min, 4 pts, 5 reb, 0 asts, 1 stl, 2 blk, 0 to
2014-15: MPG 18.2, FG% .477, 3PT% .000, PPG 6.1, RPG 5.0, APG 0.2, 15 steals, 20 blocks
Game Analysis
When you get to the Elite Eight, teams are playing well and are confident in their abilities. Theses two teams are no exception. Dayton is playing great. UConn is playing out of this world.
On offense, Dayton loves to run, run and run some more. They run, drive and kick to open shooters. Their half court offense is a lot of screening. Hover is terrific at driving to the basket and her high floaters off the backboard with either hand are a thing of beauty. Mallot is what I would call Stewart-light. She moves great for a 6'4" player, loves to run on the break and can finish strong. Don't let the 2-10 from beyond the arc against Louisville fool you. They shoot a high percentage from behind the arc. Hover is at 45%, Mallot is at 40%, and Dean is at 39%. They love to shot threes on the break. They are also the best team left from the free throw line with 4 players at over 80%. They do tend to turn the ball over often and that has been a problem all season.
On defense, UConn is going to pressure Dayton from tip off until the end of the game. And Dayton will have to figure out a way to deal with it. Louisville put lots of pressure on the Dayton guards, but they haven't seen anything like what UConn will bring. UConn will try to get the ball out of their best players hands and Mallot might see some double teams. Stewart and Stokes will protect the paint with their length and it's something that Louisville wasn't able to do.
UConn's offense is as efficient as any you will see and maybe one of the best ever for the Huskies. with the Texas game, UConn is now averaging over 90 points per game. Right now every starter seems to be shooting well and they will pick and screen for each other until they get open shots. Stewart set a screen for KML in the second half where the defender looked like they ran into a wall. While Stewart, Tuck and KML all bring great skills to the offense, it's Jefferson that makes this engine run and I don't see anyone close to quick enough to slow her down. If the Dayton guards drive to the basket they better have at least one player to cheat back to protect against Jefferson running her one person break. One defender just won't cut it as she can drive past any defender and has multiple finishing moves. Dayton plays man-to-man with not much doubling. That might have to change. Stewart on the perimeter will bring one of the Dayton post players away from the basket and there is no answer for Tuck and her many post moves.
As I just mentioned, Dayton plays almost exclusively man-to-man. That means that Hover, Austria and Burdette will be covering Jefferson, Nurse and KML. I don't see how they can slow down UConn's offensive juggernaut. No one is quick enough to stay with Jefferson, and with good screens, KML should get some good looks from beyond the arc. Mallot will probably cover Stewart. She is a really smart player and is the same size as Stewart. She could give Breanna some trouble. But more likely it should be a good lesson for Mallot. Jodie Cornelie-Sigmundova , their 6'4" center will probably cover Tuck. She is a very smart player as well and knows how to defend the paint. The problem for her is she has never seen a player with as good footwork and post moves with either hand like Tuck. On top of that Tuck has found her 3 points shot going 10-21 her last 13 games and she will take her defender away from the basket opening it up for UConn drives.
Final Prediction
Dayton could keep it interesting for a while, and I do expect them to do just that. Under double digits for much of the first half wouldn't surprise me. But it's really difficult to hold UConn down for too long. They will wear Dayton down and take total control of the game. They held two offensively challenged teams in Louisville and Iowa State to the 60's. The Kentucky game is a red flag for me, with Dayton giving up 94 points.
I think Dayton will get their share of points and might be able to score in the low 60's. But I can't see UConn being held to much under 85.
I'll go with a 25 point margin in this game. Dayton will not give in, even if down big.
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