Day: Monday
Date: February 12th, 2018
Location: Gampel Pavilion
Storrs, Ct.
Time: 7:00 PM
TV: ESPN2
No. 1 UConn 24-0 (12-0) Louisville 25-1 (11-1)
Head to Head games
H: 7-1; A: 4-0; N: 5-0
3/17/93 L 71-74 H
1/31/06 W 75-68 A
2/13/07 W 84-56 H
3/5/07 W 76-50 N
1/12/08 W 92-71 A
3/11/08 W 65-59 N
1/26/09 W 93-65 H
3/10/09 W 75-36 N
4/7/09 W 76-54 N
2/7/10 W 84-38 A
1/15/11 W 78-55 H
2/7/12 W 56-46 A
1/15/13 W 72-58 H
4/9/13 W 93-60 N
2/9/14 W 81-64 H
3/3/14 W 68-48 A
3/10/14 W 72-52 N
Overview
UConn and Louisville had a long and fairly recent history together, but they haven't played in almost 4 years. I really miss this rivalry. The games were always entertaining and some were even under a 20 point UConn winning margin. Jeff Walz is a very entertaining coach and the Cardinal have always had some really good players. Just not good enough to beat UConn.
This year, Louisville is having it's best season ever in regards to won loss record. They are 25-1 at this time with the only loss to a ranked Florida State team 50-49. On the other end of the spectrum, Louisville just hammered, embarrassed and mortified Notre Dame in a game I really enjoyed. Yes, I dislike ND that much. Louisville has played 4 other ranked teams, beating Ohio State in overtime 95-90, Duke 66-60, Michigan 74-49 and Oregon 74-61. They have had some entirely too close games against some mediocre teams, beating South Dakata State 68-64, Air Force 62-50, Georgia Tech 74-71, Virginia Tech 67-56. But 25-1 is 25-1 and they are expecting a final four berth this season.
UConn is coming off one of their most impressive performances of the year if not several years. In their destruction of Wichita State they had several impressive stats that I have outlined in another blog. Amazing job by the entire team. No promises that this will carry forward, but the team has to be feeling good about themselves coming into this game. I'm sure the Huskies are looking forward to playing at Gampel against a top 4 team. It should be crazy loud.
Stat by Stat Comparison
Leader is bolded
Leader is bolded
UCONN Louisville
91.1 Points Per Game 78.8
53.8 Opp Points Per Game 56.5
.536 Field Goal % .487
.337 Opp Field Goal % .366
.407 3 Point Field Goal % .390
.407 3 Point Field Goal % .390
.277 Opp 3 Point Field Goal % .304
.763 Free Throw % .751
41.7 Rebounds Per Game 39.9
32.0 Opp Rebounds Per Game 30.6
22.8 Assists Per Game 17.0
12.9 Turnovers Per Game 14.6
1.8 Assists/Turnover Ratio 1.2
10.8 Steals Per Game 8.3
1.8 Assists/Turnover Ratio 1.2
10.8 Steals Per Game 8.3
5.2 Blocks Per Game 3.5
UCONN
UConn Starters
24 Napheesa Collier
6'1" Junior Forward
MPG -28.9, FG% .573, 3PT% .372, FT% .800, 15.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 3.1 APG
15 Gabby Williams
5'11" Senior Forward
MPG - 26.2, FG% .587, 3PT% .000, FT% .696, 10.6 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 5.1 APG
11 Kia Nurse
6' Senior Guard
MPG - 32.4, FG% .552%, 3PT% .477, FT .803, 15.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.8 APG
5 Crystal Dangerfield
5'5" Sophomore Guard
MPG - 29.1, FG% .468, 3PT% .456, FT% .773%, 10.7 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 4.3 APG
33 Katie Lou Samuelson
6'3" Junior Guard/Forward
MPG - 28.2, FG% .528, 3PT% .478, FT% .790, 17.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.7 APG
UConn Bench
23 Azura Stevens
6'6" Junior Forward
MPG - 21.8, FG% .606, 3PT% .175, FT .797, 14.4 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.0 APG
3 Megan Walker
6'1" Freshman Guard/Forward
MPG - 16.6, FG% .448, 3PT% .375, FT% .750, 6.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.1 APG
MPG - 16.6, FG% .448, 3PT% .375, FT% .750, 6.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.1 APG
32 Batouly Camara
6'2" Sophomore Forward
MPG - 3.6, FG% .417, 3PT% .000, FT% .750, 1.0 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 0.3 APG
10 Molly Bent
5'9" Sophomore Guard
MPG - 8.0, FG% .474, 3PT% .333, FT% .889, 1.3 PPG, .9 RPG, .5 APG
25 Kyla Irwin
6'2" Sophomore Forward
MPG - 9.3, FG% .522, 3PT% .267, FT% .286, 2.6 PPG, 1.2 RPG, .6 APG
Mikayla Coombs
5'8" Freshman Guard
MPG - 6.8, FG% .375, 3PT% .125, FT% .600, 1.3 PPG, .9 RPG, .5 APG
34 Alexi Gordon
6' Freshman Guard
MPG - 3.6, FG% .167, 3PT% .100, FT% .000, .4 PPG, .4 RPG, .1 APG
*******************************************************************
Louisville Head Coach
Jeff Walz
Louisville Starters
25 Asia Durr
5'10" Junior Guard
2 Myisha Hines-Allen
6'2" Senior Forward
MPG 26.6, FG% .534, 3PT% .500, PPG 14.0, RPG 10.0, APG 2.2
3 Sam Fuering
6'3" Junior Forward
MPG 25.0, FG% .592, 3PT% .294, PPG 9.0, RPG 4.7, APG 1.3
23 Jazmine Jones
6 Sophomore Guard
MPG 25.7, FG% .519, 3PT% .333, PPG 8.7, RPG 4.5, APG 2.1
11 Arica Carter
5'8" RS Junior Guard
MPG 29.3, FG% .451, 3PT% .377, PPG 6.9, RPG 3.0, APG 4.1
Louisville Bench
1 Dana Evans
5'6" Freshman Guard
MPG 22.2, FG% .349, 3PT% .263, PPG 5.9, RPG 2.2 APG 3.8
33 Bionca Dunham
6'2" Sophomore Forward
MPG 12.5, FG% .659, 3PT% .000, PPG 5.6, RPG 3.5 APG .3
21 Kylee Shook
6'4" Sophomore Forward
MPG 14.8, FG% .442, 3PT% .359, PPG 5.3, RPG 4.0 APG .5
Game Analysis
So, who is Louisville. The team that lost to Florida State 50-49? Or the team that beat the hell out of Notre Dame 100-67? I guess you can say that they are neither. Like most teams, they have a couple of outlier games. UConn's win against Central Florida and the latest win against Wichita State are not necessarily who UConn is.
Teams are who they are for most of the games they play. For the most part, the stats don't lie, so when I decide how I think games will go, the stats usually win out. I did watch the Louisville/Syracuse game for this analysis. It was recent and a good indicator of how the Cardinals play.
Louisville is a little top heavy in how they operate their offense. Junior guard Asia Durr is the leading scorer on this team and has been one the of best players in the country since arriving on the scene. She has the complete offensive game. A great three point shooter, she doesn't need much room to get her shot off. And she has a terrific pull up jumper in the lane. She can get to the basket, but it's not what she does best. You know she is going to get her 15-20 shots per game. Senior Myisha Hines-Allen is a strong presence on the boards. She uses her 6'2" frame well to either get to the basket with post moves or offensive rebound. She will usually clean up whatever Durr misses. But you don't have to worry about her shooting from more than 8-10 feet from the basket.
Between Durr and Hines-Allen, this excellent duo takes around 41% of the Cardinals' shots. That doesn't leave much for the other players. But they do have some talent up and down the bench.
Louisville starts Sam Fuerling, a 6'3" forward, Jazmine Jone, a 6' guard and Arica Carter a 5'8 guard who plays the point. In Fueling they have a nice player around the basket who can take the ball out to close to the 3 point line for shots. But her forte is carving out space in the post and receiving passes. Jones is a nice player with a quick first step to the basket. She's not a threat from deep so UConn will give her room. The point guard Carter is a very good distributor of the ball. But it's not hard to pile up the assists when you are passing to Durr. She's a decent three point shooter, but just doesn't take many, only taking around 3 per game.
Off the bench, the freshman point guard Dana Evans is a fun player to watch. She is really quick. Close to Dangerfield quick. But she is more like the freshman Dangerfield than the sophomore Dangerfield. Her shot selection leaves something to be desired and her shooting percentages really suffer because of that. She is only 35% from the field and 26% on threes. Louisville players two bigs off the bench in Bionca Durham and Kylee Shook. Durham didn't impress me in any of the minutes I saw her on the court. For a good sized body, she doesn't seem so know how to use it. She has weak hands and not much of a post presence. Shook is a BIG body and throws it around with reckless abandon. Not greatly skilled, she can cause some damage down low. And she is surprisingly effective from beyond the arc. I wouldn't be surprised to see her his a couple in this game.
Defensively, Louisville is strictly a man-to-man team. They so plenty of switching but certainly not on the UConn level. They really don't pressure the ball unless Evans is in the game. She is a real pest for the ball handler. But I saw her get beat to the basket several times when whoever she was guarding got a step on her. The battle with Dangerfield will be fun to watch. Louisville doesn't block a ton of shots and Shook is really the only one that has the ability to defend the basket. But she just doesn't get enough minutes to make a difference. Their help defense can be a step slow leaving a lot of open shots.
UConn will put Nurse on Durr and offer little help in double teams. And they will put pressure on the ball with Dangerfield and Williams. Those two can force either turnover or give Louisville little time on the clock to get a good shot off. I can see Samuelson and Collier's long arms in the passing lanes as well. Louisville will find precious little room to maneuver. UConn will have to put a body on Hines-Allen in the paint and I'm concerned about foul trouble for whoever is guarding her, especially Collier.
Offensively UConn will do what they do with ball movement and finding the open shot. There will be lanes open to the basket and with no real shot blocker there, UConn could have their way. Williams will make life difficult for the Cardinal with her strong left handed drives. I don't think they have anyone to handle her. Stevens will be trouble for Louisville as well. Shook might be the one that can slow her down but Azura is too quick for her and could cause some foul issues for Shook.
Overall, UConn has way too many weapons for Louisville and Louisville just can't outscore UConn.
Shonnie Schimmel, Angel McCoughtry and now Asia Durr. All great players. But what they have in common is UConn being able to shut them down on some level. They might get their points but it always takes a extraordinary number of shots to do it. I don't see much different in this game.
It will take a big effort on everyone else's part for Louisville to have a shot in this game. I just don't see it happening. UConn has way too many weapons for a team that has played close games with some decent but not great teams. And they have had several games where they have scored under 70 points.
In this one, I can't see Louisville holding UConn down offensively. Walz teams just don't play tough enough defense. And the Cardinals haven't seen a defense like UConn's. Not even close. AND the game is in Storrs. This game has the feeling of the UConn-Duke game in Storrs a few years ago where the Dukies were supposed to give UConn a really good game and lost by 33. It won't be that big a spread but it won't be that close either. UConn's 6th player, the crowd, will be a big factor.
UConn by 18+.
Teams are who they are for most of the games they play. For the most part, the stats don't lie, so when I decide how I think games will go, the stats usually win out. I did watch the Louisville/Syracuse game for this analysis. It was recent and a good indicator of how the Cardinals play.
Louisville is a little top heavy in how they operate their offense. Junior guard Asia Durr is the leading scorer on this team and has been one the of best players in the country since arriving on the scene. She has the complete offensive game. A great three point shooter, she doesn't need much room to get her shot off. And she has a terrific pull up jumper in the lane. She can get to the basket, but it's not what she does best. You know she is going to get her 15-20 shots per game. Senior Myisha Hines-Allen is a strong presence on the boards. She uses her 6'2" frame well to either get to the basket with post moves or offensive rebound. She will usually clean up whatever Durr misses. But you don't have to worry about her shooting from more than 8-10 feet from the basket.
Between Durr and Hines-Allen, this excellent duo takes around 41% of the Cardinals' shots. That doesn't leave much for the other players. But they do have some talent up and down the bench.
Louisville starts Sam Fuerling, a 6'3" forward, Jazmine Jone, a 6' guard and Arica Carter a 5'8 guard who plays the point. In Fueling they have a nice player around the basket who can take the ball out to close to the 3 point line for shots. But her forte is carving out space in the post and receiving passes. Jones is a nice player with a quick first step to the basket. She's not a threat from deep so UConn will give her room. The point guard Carter is a very good distributor of the ball. But it's not hard to pile up the assists when you are passing to Durr. She's a decent three point shooter, but just doesn't take many, only taking around 3 per game.
Off the bench, the freshman point guard Dana Evans is a fun player to watch. She is really quick. Close to Dangerfield quick. But she is more like the freshman Dangerfield than the sophomore Dangerfield. Her shot selection leaves something to be desired and her shooting percentages really suffer because of that. She is only 35% from the field and 26% on threes. Louisville players two bigs off the bench in Bionca Durham and Kylee Shook. Durham didn't impress me in any of the minutes I saw her on the court. For a good sized body, she doesn't seem so know how to use it. She has weak hands and not much of a post presence. Shook is a BIG body and throws it around with reckless abandon. Not greatly skilled, she can cause some damage down low. And she is surprisingly effective from beyond the arc. I wouldn't be surprised to see her his a couple in this game.
Defensively, Louisville is strictly a man-to-man team. They so plenty of switching but certainly not on the UConn level. They really don't pressure the ball unless Evans is in the game. She is a real pest for the ball handler. But I saw her get beat to the basket several times when whoever she was guarding got a step on her. The battle with Dangerfield will be fun to watch. Louisville doesn't block a ton of shots and Shook is really the only one that has the ability to defend the basket. But she just doesn't get enough minutes to make a difference. Their help defense can be a step slow leaving a lot of open shots.
UConn will put Nurse on Durr and offer little help in double teams. And they will put pressure on the ball with Dangerfield and Williams. Those two can force either turnover or give Louisville little time on the clock to get a good shot off. I can see Samuelson and Collier's long arms in the passing lanes as well. Louisville will find precious little room to maneuver. UConn will have to put a body on Hines-Allen in the paint and I'm concerned about foul trouble for whoever is guarding her, especially Collier.
Offensively UConn will do what they do with ball movement and finding the open shot. There will be lanes open to the basket and with no real shot blocker there, UConn could have their way. Williams will make life difficult for the Cardinal with her strong left handed drives. I don't think they have anyone to handle her. Stevens will be trouble for Louisville as well. Shook might be the one that can slow her down but Azura is too quick for her and could cause some foul issues for Shook.
Overall, UConn has way too many weapons for Louisville and Louisville just can't outscore UConn.
Game Prediction
Shonnie Schimmel, Angel McCoughtry and now Asia Durr. All great players. But what they have in common is UConn being able to shut them down on some level. They might get their points but it always takes a extraordinary number of shots to do it. I don't see much different in this game.
It will take a big effort on everyone else's part for Louisville to have a shot in this game. I just don't see it happening. UConn has way too many weapons for a team that has played close games with some decent but not great teams. And they have had several games where they have scored under 70 points.
In this one, I can't see Louisville holding UConn down offensively. Walz teams just don't play tough enough defense. And the Cardinals haven't seen a defense like UConn's. Not even close. AND the game is in Storrs. This game has the feeling of the UConn-Duke game in Storrs a few years ago where the Dukies were supposed to give UConn a really good game and lost by 33. It won't be that big a spread but it won't be that close either. UConn's 6th player, the crowd, will be a big factor.
UConn by 18+.
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