UCONN vs South Florida
Day: Monday
Date: February 26th, 2018
Time: 7:00
Location: Gampel Pavilion
TV: ESPN2
TV: ESPN2
No. 1 UConn Huskies No. 18 South Florida Bulls
28-0 (15-0) 24-5 (13-2)
Prior Meetings
UConn leads the series 23-0
12/28/02 W 72-56 A
12/1/04 W 75-65 (ot) H
1/24/06 W 77-47 H
2/20/07 W 81-67 A
3/4/07 W 74-54 N1/30/08 W 71-48 H
1/6/09 W 83-37 A
3/8/09 W 79-42 H
1/4/10 W 84-42 H
12/2/10 W 80-54 A
1/28/12 W 77-62 H
3/2/13 W 85-51 A
1/26/14 W 81-53 H
2/16/14 W 63-38 A
1/18/15 W 92-50 H
3/2/15 W 88-65 N
3/9/15 W 84-70 N
1/10/16 W 75-59 A
2/29/16 W 79-59 H
3/7/16 W 77-51 N
1/10/17 W 102-37 H
2/27/17 W 96-68 A
3/6/17 W 100-44 N
1/6/18 W 100-49 A
1/18/15 W 92-50 H
3/2/15 W 88-65 N
3/9/15 W 84-70 N
1/10/16 W 75-59 A
2/29/16 W 79-59 H
3/7/16 W 77-51 N
1/10/17 W 102-37 H
2/27/17 W 96-68 A
3/6/17 W 100-44 N
1/6/18 W 100-49 A
Team Overviews
South Florida comes into this game back in the Top 25 at No. 17 after winning 12 of their last 13 games losing inexplicitly to Wichita State. They are on a 9 game winning streak. At 24-5 the Bulls are again having a terrific season, showing that they are clearly the second best team in the conference.
UConn has once again clinched the regular season title in the AAC. They still haven't lost a conference game since it's inception. UConn has won 15 games in a row since beating USF earlier in the season and are coming off an 80-36 win over SMU where UConn was cold early and late. But you can't ignore a 43-0 run over 15 incredible minutes of play.
In their first matchup, UConn steamrolled South Florida 100-49. And it wasn't that close.
In their first matchup, UConn steamrolled South Florida 100-49. And it wasn't that close.
Team Stats
(leader is bolded)
UCONN South Florida
90.5 Points Per Game 76.5
52.8 Opp Points Per Game 61.6
.534 Field Goal % .431
.334 Opp Field Goal % .375
.397 3 Point Field Goal % .354
.279 Opp 3 Point Field Goal % .328
.770 Free Throw % .766
41.6 Rebounds Per Game 44.0
31.6 Opp Rebounds Per Game 33.4
23.4 Assists Per Game 15.6
12.8 Turnovers Per Game 12.3
1.8 Assists/Turnover Ratio 1.3
1.8 Assists/Turnover Ratio 1.3
10.9 Steals Per Game 5.4
5.1 Blocks Per Game 3.3
Since the first matchup, UConn's offensive stats are almost identical and all the defensive stats have improved slightly.
South Florida's stats have almost all gotten worse across the board both defensively and offensively. That is strange considering they have only lost one game since then.
South Florida's stats have almost all gotten worse across the board both defensively and offensively. That is strange considering they have only lost one game since then.
UCONN
UConn Starters
24 Napheesa Collier
6'1" Junior Forward
First South Florida Game - 28 minutes, 25 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 blocks
MPG -28.5, FG% .579, 3PT% .360, FT% .795, 15.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.2 APG
15 Gabby Williams
5'11" Senior Forward
First South Florida Game - 26 minutes, 9 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals
MPG - 26.5, FG% .583, 3PT% .000, FT% .709, 10.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 5.1 APG
11 Kia Nurse
6' Senior Guard
First South Florida Game - 34 minutes, 8 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists
MPG - 32.3, FG% .543, 3PT% .467, FT% .818, 14.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3.0 APG
5 Crystal Dangerfield
5'5" Sophomore Guard
First South Florida Game - 28 minutes, 10 points, 2 rebounds, 5 assists
MPG - 28.7, FG% .448, 3PT% .419, FT% .773, 9.6 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 4.2 APG
First South Florida Game - 22 minutes 15 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists
MPG - 28.4, FG% .548, 3PT% .493, FT% .817, 18.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.9 APG
UConn Bench
23 Azura Stevens
6'6" Junior Forward
First South Florida Game - 18 minutes, 15 points, 9 rebounds, 4 blocks
MPG - 21.2, FG% .604, 3PT% .152, FT .815, 14.4 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.1 APG
3 Megan Walker
6'1" Freshman Guard/Forward
First South Florida Game - 18 minutes, 6 points, 2 rebounds
MPG - 15.9, FG% .439, 3PT% .321, FT% .762, 6.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.1 APG
32 Batouly Camara
6'2" Sophomore Forward
First South Florida Game - 2 minutes, 1 assist
MPG - 4.6, FG% .400, 3PT% .000, FT% .556, 1.3 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 0.5 APG
10 Molly Bent
5'9" Sophomore Guard
First South Florida Game - 7 minutes, 7 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 turnover
MPG - 8.2, FG% .450, 3PT% .333, FT% .889, 1.2 PPG, 1.2 RPG, .7 APG
25 Kyla Irwin
6'2" Sophomore Forward
First South Florida Game - 10 minutes, 6 points, 1 rebound
MPG - 9.8, FG% .518, 3PT% .300, FT% .286, 2.8 PPG, 1.4 RPG, .7 APG
Mikayla Coombs
5'8" Freshman guard
First South Florida Game - 4 minutes, 1 rebound, 1 turnover
MPG - 6.9, FG% .370, 3PT% .111, FT% .583, PPG 1.3, RPG .9, APG .5
34 Alexi Gordon
6' Freshman Guard
First South Florida Game - 3 minutes, 1 assist, 1 turnover
MPG - 4.1, FG% .136, 3PT% .083, FT% .000, .4 PPG, .5 RPG, .2 APG
*******************************************************************
Coach Jose Fernandez
Fernandez has watched his team reach new milestones, including five consecutive 20-win seasons dating back to the 2012-13 season. The Bulls have reached the NCAA Tournament five times, including four-straight trips since 2014. Off the court, the program boasts a 100 percent graduation rate and a perfect 1000 Academic Progress Report score awarded by the NCAA.
Looking to make history in his 18th season as head coach, Fernandez and the Bulls' senior class look to reach the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time in as many years. The class of 2018 would become the first in program history to reach four NCAA Tournaments and would join only a handful of groups across all sports at USF to achieve the feat.
Fernandez, who was officially named head coach on Nov. 14, 2000 - just seven months after coming to USF - has led the Bulls in an amazing turnaround under his tenure. Under his guidance, USF has advanced to 13 postseason tournaments, including five NCAA Tournament berths.
The Miami native has had 12 seasons with a .500 record or better after. In 22 years prior to his arrival, USF recorded just three winning seasons, all 14-13 slates. Fernandez has guided USF to eight seasons with 20+ wins.
Fernandez believes to be the best you have to play the best. Since arriving at USF, Fernandez and his staff have worked to schedule the toughest teams in women’s basketball. The Bulls have sought after perennial powers like Baylor, DePaul, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Louisville, Notre Dame, LSU, Miami, Michigan State, Nebraska, UNLV, Texas and Wake Forest, to name a few. USF has boasted some of the toughest strength of schedules in the country.
South Florida Starters
33 Kitija Laska
6' Junior Forward
First UConn Game - 25 minutes, ZERO points, 1 block
MPG 33.2, FG% .442, 3PT% .437, PPG 21.5, RPG 4.4 APG 1.8
6' Senior Forward
First South Florida Game - 26 minutes, 9 points, 8 rebound, 1 assist, 6 turnovers
MPG 34.1, FG% .474, 3PT% .362, PPG 17.0, RPG 9.7 APG 1.8
10 Laura Ferraro
5'11" Senior Guard/Forward
First South Florida Game - 37 minutes, 2 points, 4 rebound, 4 assist, 1 steal
MPG 34.7, FG% .404, 3PT% .317, PPG 12.3, RPG 7.9 APG 3.3
5'7" Senior Guard
First South Florida Game - 33 minutes, 7 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers
MPG 34.5, FG% .466, 3PT% .412, PPG 9.7, RPG 4.3 APG 6.7
23 Tamara Henshaw
6'1" Sophomore Forward
First South Florida Game - 23 minutes, 8 points, 6 rebound, 2 assist
MPG 21.9, FG% .588, 3PT% .000, PPG 6.7, RPG 4.5 APG .5
South Florida Bench
5'11" Freshman Guard
First South Florida Game - 7 minutes, 5 points
Here is my game analysis from the first game. I think it's still pretty much true. I'll add in how the first game went in my prediction section.
Last season UConn hammered South Florida in all three games they played. The second matchup was not as bad as the other two, but the third game showed how big the gap is between the No. 1 team in the conference and the No. 2 team in the conference.
How are the teams different this season? USF has four starters back in Katija Laksa, Maria Jesperson, Laia Flores and Tamara Henshaw. They are only without starting guard Ariadna Pulos, their third leading scorer from last season. But they added a player that missed most of last season in Laura Ferreira. That is pretty much a wash.
The 6' Katija Laksa from Latvia is still the scoring star of this team. She has improved her stats year to year, and this season is no exception. She is averaging 21.2 PPG and shooting a better percentage from the field and also the signature part of her game, three point shooting. She is at a career high 43.7%. To me she looks like she slimmed down some and is a little quicker. Her release is as quick as ever, and if she is on, she could be trouble for UConn.
6' Maria Jesperson, from Denmark, has also improved her scoring and shooting percentages in this her senior season. But against UConn she has had a tough time getting her shot. Williams and Collier are too tough for her. Williams is too quick and Collier is quicker and longer.
Laia Flores, the 5'7" point guard is from Spain and last season, she was a true point guard with 200 assists for the season. This year she is on pace for even more. And she doesn't turn the ball over much with only 24 in her first 13 games. I'm partial to lefties and she is sneaky to the basket.
5'11" Laura Ferriera is a wing from Portugal that has done a great job replacing last years starting guard Ariadna Pulos. She is third on the team in scoring and plays a solid all around game. She missed all three games last season as she was out after nine games with an injury.
Tamara Henshaw a big 6'1" forward is the fifth starter just doesn't match the profile of a Coach Hernandez's player on this years team. One, she is from Palm Coast, Florida not overseas and she is a only a sophomore, not an upper classman like her starting teammates.
Right now, Fernandez is playing his best players close to the entire game. Katija Laksa, Maria Jesperson, Laura Ferriera and Laia Flores play 35-40 minutes each especially in the games against the better teams. Expect that to happen again.
Their only other player that might see some playing time is 5'11" guard Alba Prieto a freshman from Spain. But her minutes will be used to rest the starters, especially Henshaw, who doesn't see more than 25-30 minutes a game.
South Florida plays almost exclusively man-to-man, and they do it very well. They are not that quick, but they know how to move their feet to keep the defender in front of them. They have been well drilled. They held a high scoring UConn team to under 80 points three times two years ago but last season they gave up 102 points in the first game and they gave up 96 points in the second meeting and 100 in the third. They just don't have the quick players that graduated from two years ago to contend with UConn. Specifically Courtney Williams and Shalethia Stringfield.
UConn will try to tire out the Bulls as I mentioned, four of their starters will be close to the 40 minute mark. UConn will press, run off misses, run off makes, run run run.
UConn will also be able to get to the rim as USF has no shot blocking presence. And as they try to protect the basket, Samuelson, Nurse and Dangerfield will get open looks from deep. Last season Collier burned USF by scoring a career high 39 points and Samuelson had a career high 40 in the last game these teams played against each other. They are both tough matchups for South Florida.
With the addition of Stevens and Walker, and the emergence of Dangerfield, UConn has three more matchup issues for USF. It was tough the last year and probably tougher with these three players impacting this game.
Final Prediction
I think I was pretty much right on with my analysis before the first game. Since then we have seen these two teams play again. Just a few extra observations.
It's clear from the last game these two teams played, UConn is in Laksa's head. I'm not sure she can overcome that in this environment. She is capable of getting hot but I just don't see it against the senior duo of Nurse and Williams on defense.
Jesperson is just too slow against a team like UConn. Her 6 turnovers in the last game is a good indication of that.
Can a player overcome a 1-16 shooting night? 0-9 on threes? Laura Ferriera will have to do just that after an embarrassing game last time out against UConn.
The last game showed it true and clear. USF has real matchup problems against UConn. Their goal will be to keep it close enough not to be embarrassed again. In the emotion charged Senior night atmosphere, UConn could get off to another slow start and poor shooting performance. But the Huskies will get it together and pull off the 40+ point win.
No comments:
Post a Comment