Doggydaddy's Den: Doggy's Doghouse 1/5/20

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Image result for not pretty has to be gritty

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Barrett helped me Blog!

He typed dgojaabn23;a&^0

Translation?

Great win for the HUSKIES!!!!

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UConn prepared for their game against Baylor with a nice 80-42 win over SMU in Dallas. The Huskies were phenomenal offensively. Yes, they only hit their average for scoring, but it was the way they scored that made this game so special.

UConn had 29 assists on their 33 baskets, an old school stat that has to have Geno smiling.

The Huskies were led by Christyn William with 21 points, following up her great second half against Wichita State with a really good game against SMU. However, the star of the game was senior Kyla Irwin, who helped UConn pick apart the SMU 2-3 zone with her timely passes and dead eye shooting.

Geno must have loved how she was playing because she had a team high 32 minutes. Irwin was 5-5 from the field and a remarkable 4-4 on threes. She is now an unworldly 12-18 on threes for a 66.7% rate and 19-26 from the field overall for a 73.1% rate. She probably won't get enough shots to qualify but that would be a UConn record. On top of that, she handed out 7 assists to lead the Huskies. Wow. What a great game. I think she led in hustle plays as well.

I really liked how Geno dolled out the minutes in this one. When Irwin is the leading minutes player, you know the other starters got plenty of rest. Geno played an 8 player rotation. I don't expect that to continue against Baylor. Molly looked unsure of herself in this one, and Baylor is a pressure defense team that would give her fits. And even Kyla, in spite of this great game, might not see extended minutes against the Bears. They are just too athletic. I do hope she proves me wrong!

I've already gotten a lot of my Pregame Report done for the Baylor game. It should be out by Tuesday sometime.

Take a good look at this picture. Geno was just so upset about something on the court late in the game. Chris looks chagrined. But Christyn? You can't tell in the still shot as much as the live video, but she hid her face in the towel so you wouldn't see her laughing. But it was clear she was. I guess it's funny when they aren't yelling at you...lol.

The plays of the game? I loved the fast break where Crystal threw a long bounce pass to Griffin who was streaking down the court. But Griffin wins with this one....

Aubrey Griffin doing Aubrey Griffin things pic.twitter.com/NkKTZPzCvD
— Daniel Connolly (@DanielVConnolly) January 5, 2020

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A lot of games Sunday, and nary an upset!

I'll end with my favorite two teams to trash, Tennessee and Notre Dame.

The Lady Vols lost to No. 13 Kentucky 80-76. Tennessee had no answer for Kentucky's superstar Rhyne Howard who score 37 points to lead the Wildcats. She was 7-13 on threes, and most of them were used to stem any Tennessee comeback. The Lady Vols are still struggling to hang on to the ball as they had 21 turnovers. After 12 assists in her last game, the Tennessee point guard Massengill had zero assists and 3 turnovers. I will give credit to Tennessee on their ability to come back from double digit deficits to make a game of it. They did that several times. Still, a loss is a loss. See Phil's writeup on the bottom of the Top 25 to see what will probably happen to No. 22 Tennessee. The pollsters just don't want to see them out of that list.

Notre Dame took on Syracuse and had control for most of this game. They had as much as a ten point lead in the fourth quarter but Syracuse kept chipping away. With 1:31 left Peoples hit two free throws to give the Irish a four point lead. But a free throw by Kiara Lewis closed to three points. Peoples was fouled with 30 seconds left and could have put the game away. But she missed them both and with 6 second left, Lewis hit a three pointer to tie the game and send it into overtime. I'm not sure what the heck happened to Notre Dame in overtime, but they were outscored 14-3 and it was game over. The Irish are now 6-9 and 1-2 in the conference. This loss was not just a loss. It was a killer.

No. 8 Florida State defeated No. 23 Miami 73-62 behind Connecticut native Kiah Gillespie's 21 points. I'm mentioning this game because CBS Sports power rankings always uses the Oregon State win over Miami as a big win and better than any UConn wins. Now Miami will be out of the Top 25 and is 9-5. So when does that OSU win over the Hurricanes stop being a big win?

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Maybe I should make this a regular section. There are so many interviews and videos with this young lady.

Let's not forget our next European players, Nika Muhl, who is now averaging 12+ assists per game.

And a video from this past July

These two are going to one hell of a backcourt for the Huskies!!

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From Professor Phil

Teams that could run the table

Go to the Massey rankings page

Look at the last column labeled "EL", you will see the number of expected losses for the team. For example, Connecticut's number is 1.64 (although it may be different by the time you read this).

Obviously, losses come in whole numbers; there is no such thing as 0.64 of a loss, but this column basically means that if you calculate the probability of a loss in every one of the remaining games, those amounts add up to 1.64.

If you click twice on that column, the table will sort, showing the smallest values at the top. At the moment, the team with the smallest number of expected losses is Gonzaga, expecting 0.89 losses. This doesn't mean that Massey has identified a game that Gonzaga is expected to lose, it means is a chance they could lose every single one of the games, and 0.89 is the sum of all those little pieces. For example,there is a 16% chance Gonzaga will lose when they play at St. Mary's, and that contributes 0.16 to the total.

Gonzaga is an interesting example, because they are favored to win every single one of the remaining games. And not just win, their expected margin of victory is double digits in every case. The toughest remaining game is at #88 St. Mary's, followed by the game against #103 Pacific. They have an 88% chance of winning at Santa Clara, and in every other game, the probability of winning is 90% or better. 90% isn't 100%, and if you play enough games with a 90% chance of winning you'll eventually lose one, but Gonzaga has a realistic chance of running the table, which would leave them with a 28–1 record.

Florida Gulf Coast is in a similar position. Their toughest remaining game is at #123 Liberty, where they are expected to win by nine points and have a 77% chance of winning. They have three other games with their probability of winning is 81 to 88%, and the remaining games have probabilities exceeding 90%. They already have two losses, so the best they can do is 28–2. Massey think it's more likely that they will be 27 – 3, but they also has have a decent chance of running the table.

The next three teams, South Dakota, Princeton, and James Madison all have a realistic chances of running the table. I'm listing below the probability of winning in the most challenging game each has:

South Dakota 69%

Princeton 81%

James Madison 75%

In other words, these three teams will be favored in every single one of the remaining games, although the odds are they will get surprised and upset in one or more of those games.

The seventh team in the list is Connecticut. The number of expected losses is 1.64, but the makeup is a little different than the examples above. For the conference teams, the expected winning percentage is better than 90% in every case. The game at UCF is the "worst", with a 92% win probability. However, as we all know, we have three tough nonconference games left. The game against South Carolina may be the most challenging; Massey gives Connecticut a 49% chance of winning, and give South Carolina a one point edge. The games against Oregon and Baylor are home, which is worth a lot, so the probabilities are better than 50-50 for a win in each case, but just like a free-throw shooter hitting 60% is more likely to hit the next shot than miss, they are also much more likely to go one-on-one than hit both. And there is better than one chance in three of losing both.

Auriemma is smart enough not to overlook any of the conference games, knowing anything can happen, but those three challenging nonconference games contribute the most to the expected losses.

And some more from the Professor!!!!

Tough week for 5 of the 6 teams at the bottom of the AP T25

# 25 Texas LOST to TCU 3 January Should exit T25

# 24 Minnesota LOST to Nebraska 4 Jan Should exit T25

# 23 Miami LOST to Georgia Tech 2 Jan, and Miami LOST to Florida State 5 Jan Should exit T25

# 22 Tennessee LOST to Kentucky 5 Jan Should exit T25 but don't be surprised if it doesn't happen

# 21 Missouri State survived OT against Loyola 3 Jan Beat Valparaiso 5 Jan May move up a spot

# 20 Arkansas LOST to TAMU 2 Jan Beat Auburn 5 Jan Should drop, but not out.

South Dakota should return to the rankings

Michigan vs Michigan state, Michigan wins, they shouldn't but are likely to return to the T25

Rutgers vs Purdue noon RU wins should move up

In theory, Texas, Minnesota, Miami and Tennessee should all drop from the top 25, leaving room for South Dakota, Michigan, Rutgers and Princeton, but watch them just Move Tennessee down a spot, leaving Princeton out.

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By David in Naples!!!!

By far the most satisfying part of the victory over SMU was the bench play. All 4 of the subs played and did well, especially Griffin and Makurat. Both look comfortable with their roles on offense and defense. The totals of the 4 subs were impressive.

1. Points - 16 total points with Aubrey scoring 8 and Anna 6.
2. Shooting - A combined 6-14 or 43%.
3. Three point shots- Anna was 2-4.
4. Rebounds- 14 rebounds and 5 were offensive. Molly with 3.
5. Steals - 4 total with 2 by Bent.
6. Minutes- 58 quality minutes that gave the starters rest. Megan played only 28 minutes.
7. Assists - 7 total assists with Molly having 3 of them.

SMU was a weak opponent, but the bench played quality minutes. Not just garbage time..!

Go Huskies...!

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UCONN LINKS

UConn takes care of business against SMU
UConn trounces SMU 80-42
Top ranked UConn eases past SMU

Top Twenty-Five Scores and Links
Upsets in Red

No. 2 Oregon 88 Utah 51
No. 3 Oregon State 72 Colorado 60
No. 4 South Carolina 93 Alabama 78
No. 5 Stanford 77 Washington 56
No. 7 Louisville 60 Duke 55
No. 8 Florida State 73 No. 23 Miami 62
No. 9 North Carolina State 80 Virginia 60
No. 10 UCLA 70 No.18 Arizona 58
No. 13 Kentucky 80 No. 22 Tennessee 76
No. 15 Mississippi State 73 Georgia 66
No. 16 DePaul 74 Creighton 71
No. 19 West Virginia 74 Kansas State 63
No. 20 Arkansas 86 Auburn 70
No. 21 Missouri State 81 Valparaiso 68

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