Thursday
January 23rd, 2020
XL Center, Hartford CT.
7:00 P.M.
7:00 P.M.
ESPN
No. 3 UConn Huskies No. 23 Tennessee Lady Vols
16-1 15-3
Prior MeetingsUCONN LEADS 13-9
Home: 4-4
Away: 4-3
Neutral: 5-2
01/16/95 #2 UConn 77, #1 UT 66 Storrs, Conn.
04/02/95 #1 UConn 70, #3 UT 64 Minneapolis, Minn.
01/06/96 #2 UConn 59, #4 UT 53 Knoxville, Tenn.
03/29/96 #4 UT 88, #2 UConn 83 (OT) Charlotte, N.C.
01/05/97 #1 UConn 72, #8 UT 57 Hartford, Conn.
03/24/97 #10 UT 91, #1 UConn 81 Iowa City, Iowa
01/03/98 #1 UT 84, #3 UConn 69 Knoxville, Tenn.
01/10/99 #2 UT 92, #1 UConn 81 Storrs, Conn.
01/08/00 #1 UConn 74, #2 UT 67 Knoxville, Tenn.
02/02/00 #4 UT 72, #1 UConn 71 Storrs, Conn.
04/02/00 #1 UConn 71, #2 UT 52 Philadelphia, Pa.
12/30/00 #1 UConn 81, #2 UT 76 Hartford, Conn.
02/01/01 #3 UT 92, #2 UConn 88 Knoxville, Tenn.
01/05/02 #1 UConn 86, #2 UT 72 Knoxville, Tenn.
03/29/02 #1 UConn 79, #6 UT 56 San Antonio, Texas
01/04/03 #3 UConn 63, #5 UT 62 (OT) Hartford, Conn.
04/08/03 #1 UConn 73, #5 UT 68 Atlanta, Ga.
02/05/04 #4 UConn 81, #1 UT 67 Knoxville, Tenn.
04/06/04 #6 UConn 70, #2 UT 61 New Orleans, La.
01/08/05 #10 UT 68, #15 UConn 67 Hartford, Conn.
01/07/06 #1 UT 89, #7 UConn 80 Knoxville, Tenn.
01/06/07 #4 UT 70, #5 UConn 64 Hartford, Conn.
Team Overviews
I guess like most team overviews, Tennessee's is based on your point of view. For most Tennessee fans, the team has been doing really well, so much better than the dreaded "Warlick" era. They have what they call "chemistry". Playing harder and smarter. But from the outside it's too early to even go there. They are 15-3 but the only games against good teams they lost. They lost to Texas, Stanford and Kentucky. Their 15 wins? The best RPI was 125. Four teams were over 300 RPI. Because of this I take what they have done with a grain of salt. Are they better than last season? Probably. But just not by much.
UConn is coming off a terrific game against an over-matched Tulsa team. breaking out of their shooting slump in a big way. I believe it was more than just a shooting slump. They just didn't play as well as they had all season long up to the Baylor game. But 16-1 on the season and ranked No. 3 is nothing to sneeze at.
Tennessee Realtime RPI
RPI Rank: 64 SOS Rank: 203
| Date | Opponent | Opp. RPI Rk | Results | |||
| 11-05 | at | E. Tennessee St. | 6-13 (2-3) | 218 | 72-68 | W |
| 11-07 | Central Arkansas | 5-9 (4-4) | 226 | 63-36 | W | |
| 11-11 | at | Notre Dame | 8-12 (3-5) | 111 | 74-63 | W |
| 11-14 | Tennessee St. | 0-15 (0-7) | 332 | 73-43 | W | |
| 11-19 | Stetson | 4-10 (1-3) | 232 | 73-46 | W | |
| 11-26 | AR Pine Bluff | 2-10 (2-1) | 263 | 92-51 | W | |
| 12-01 | Air Force | 3-14 (2-5) | 315 | 81-54 | W | |
| 12-08 | Texas | 11-6 (3-2) | 53 | 60-66 | L | |
| 12-11 | Colorado St. | 7-9 (3-4) | 261 | 79-41 | W | |
| 12-18 | at | Stanford | 16-3 (6-2) | 5 | 51-78 | L |
| 12-21 | at | Portland St. | 10-7 (5-3) | 167 | 88-61 | W |
| 12-29 | Howard | 10-8 (2-3) | 236 | 88-38 | W | |
| 01-02 | Missouri | 5-14 (2-4) | 148 | 77-66 | W | |
| 01-05 | at | Kentucky | 15-4 (4-3) | 21 | 76-80 | L |
| 01-09 | at | Mississippi | 7-12 (0-6) | 280 | 84-28 | W |
| 01-12 | Georgia | 12-7 (3-3) | 61 | 73-56 | W | |
| 01-16 | at | Florida | 11-9 (2-5) | 132 | 78-50 | W |
.
UConn Realtime RPI
RPI Rank: 4 SOS Rank: 10
UCONN
RPI Rank: 4 SOS Rank: 10
| Date | Opponent | Opp. RPI Rk | Results | |||
| 11-10 | California | 9-9 (1-6) | 86 | 72-61 | W | |
| $ 11-13 | at | Vanderbilt | 12-7 (2-4) | 58 | 64-51 | W |
| $ 11-17 | at | Temple | 11-7 (4-2) | 54 | 83-54 | W |
| $ 11-19 | Virginia | 7-12 (2-6) | 42 | 83-44 | W | |
| $ 11-24 | at | Ohio St. | 12-7 (5-3) | 31 | 73-62 | W |
| 11-26 | at | Dayton | 12-7 (5-0) | 88 | 75-37 | W |
| $ 12-05 | at | Seton Hall | 12-7 (5-3) | 57 | 92-78 | W |
| 12-08 | Notre Dame | 8-12 (3-5) | 111 | 81-57 | W | |
| $$ 12-16 | at | DePaul | 16-2 (6-0) | 14 | 84-74 | W |
| $$ 12-22 | vs | Oklahoma | 10-7 (3-2) | 28 | 97-53 | W |
| 01-02 | Wichita St. | 11-7 (3-2) | 134 | 83-55 | W | |
| 01-05 | at | SMU | 7-9 (1-3) | 204 | 80-42 | W |
| 01-09 | Baylor | 15-1 (4-0) | 13 | 58-74 | L | |
| 01-11 | Houston | 9-9 (2-2) | 152 | 91-51 | W | |
| 01-14 | at | Memphis | 9-8 (0-4) | 179 | 68-56 | W |
| $ 01-16 | at | UCF | 10-6 (2-2) | 55 | 59-52 | W |
| 01-19 | Tulsa | 5-13 (0-5) | 210 | 92-34 | W | |
Nothing gives you a better comparison than when you put these schedules with RPI of opponents one after the other. You can see how much better the competition has been for UConn compared to Tennessee. It's not even close. So, when you look at the stats that I post in this analysis always take the Tennessee numbers with a grain of salt.
5.4 Blocks per game 7.4
Comparative Team Statistics
UConn Tennessee
78.5 PPG 74.8
55.5 Defensive PPG 54.9
23.0 Scoring Margin 19.9
47.8 Field Goal % 45.9
34.2 Defensive FG% 31.0
38.7 Three Point % 33.5
28.2 Defensive 3PT% 26,2
69.5 Free Throw % 65.6
43.1 Rebounds/game 49.2
9.8 Rebounding Margin 15.4
18.4 Assists per game 18.2
14.1 Turnover per game 16.8
1.3 Assists/TO ratio 1.1
9.1 Steals per game 5.9
UCONN
The player and coaches names for both teams
are clickable to see their Bios
UConn Starters
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Tennessee Lady Vols
Tennessee Starters
Tennessee Bench
Game Analysis
It's so surreal to be writing this pregame report. So weird. It's been how many years? Since January 6th 2007. 12 years. I remember the past games. Every one of them. The battles over the 13 years that they played. The fan bases killing each other on their respective message boards. It was UGLY. However, this report is not about the past but about the present. And No. 3 UConn is playing No. 23 Tennessee.
I was able to watch hours of Tennessee games. Too many, to tell you the truth. They are playing a little better offensively, but still, it's an ugly brand of basketball.
For this analysis, I'm going to do a player match up exercise. I've done these in the past and they are a lot of fun to write.
Point Guard
5'5" Senior Crystal Dangerfield vs 6' Sophomore Jazmine Massengill
If you go by the stats, this match up is no contest.
Dangerfield is averaging 15.6 PPG and 4.1 APG. Massengill is averaging 6.4 PPG and 4.6 APG. Being a big guard, Massengill does average 5 RPG. Dangerfield also has the advantage in steals, 31 vs 12.
The big advantage is not only the scoring, but the efficiency. Dangerfield shoots 47.5% from the field and 42.6% on threes compared to Massengill with 37.3% from the field and 29.2% on threes.
Add in the senior leadership and experience and it's.....
Advantage UConn
Shooting Guard
5'11 Sophomore Christyn Williams vs 6'2" Freshman Jordan Horston
This is a fun match up. Two very talented young players going head to head. No. 1 in the HS class of 2018 vs No. 2 in the HS class of 2019. Statistically, it's close, but I believe Williams has the slight advantage.
Williams is averaging 15.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists per game. Horston is averaging 10.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.9 assists per game.
How do they match up in efficiency?? Well, Williams shoots 48.9% from the field and 28.6% on threes. Horston shoots 42% from the field and 32% on threes. I think you could call this close to even.
The big difference between the two players is in turnovers. Horston has really struggled on that front, with 72 compared to Williams with 31 on the season. Again, the experience level is a big difference maker.
Both are dynamic player, but......
Advantage UConn.
Wing
6'1" Junior Megan Walker vs 6'2" Junior Rennia Davis
This is maybe the best matchup between the two best players on each team. Again, another close statistical matchup.
Walker is averaging 20.5 points, 8.8 and 3.1 assists per game compared to Davis, who is averaging 17.4, points 8.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.
Shooting wise, Walker is at 47.1% from the field, 44.0% on threes while Davis is shooting 48.3% from the field and 32.3% on threes. I'd give an advantage to Walker just based on three point shooting.
Both players are really key for their teams but Davis is more key.
These players are both terrific and the match up is very close. I could be fair and call this even.
Nah........
Slight Advantage UConn
Power Forward
6'2" Senior Kyla Irwin vs 6'3" RS Senior Lou Brown
This is a really even match up between two very similar players. Not only in style and athletic ability, but statistically as well.
Irwin is averaging 3.6 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. Brown is averaging 4.3 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game.
Irwin has the clear advantage in efficiency. She is shooting 55.6% from the field and 52% on threes. Brown has not shot as well. She is shooting 44.8% from the field and 35.3% on threes. A clear difference is Brown shoots more, but not by much.
I could see one or the other or both players hit a clutch three pointer somewhere along the line in the game, but don't expect much offense.
This one is easy......
Advantage EVEN
Center
6'5" Sophomore Olivia Nelson-Ododa vs 6'5" Freshman Tamari Key
This is another really good match up. ONO has had an up and down season for sure, but she still has had more good than bad this season. Key is a steal for Tennessee as the No. 47 recruit. She is playing at a higher level than that.
ONO is averaging 11.3 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 3.9 blocks per game. Key is averaging 8.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, .8 assists and 2.7 blocks.
Efficiency wise, Key has the better percentage from the field, 59% vs 50.3% for ONO. Neither has made a three points, and both shoot around 55% from the free throw line.
Defense is the mainstay for both of these players. Both are terrific shot blockers and shot alterers.
ONO has had some dominating games while Key has not. Experience matters with post players as well. So, I'm sure you can guess what I am going here.........
Advantage UConn
Bench
UConn
6'1" Freshman Guard Anna Makurat
6'1"Freshman Forward Aubrey Griffin
Tennessee
6'4" Junior Center Kasiyahna Kushkituah
6'1" Sophomore Guard/Forward Rae Burrell
Two very different benches in regards to skills and position. The Lady Vols have some size off the bench to back up Key in Kushkituah. Big and slow. Burrell is a real talented player that is still figuring it out. Griffin is playing like a freshman. She is way too tentative on the court. But she is a very talented player. Just as talented as Burrell. Makurat is the wild card in this bench comparison. Did she just figure things out? She is mature for a freshman due to her European league experience. Her three point shooting ability could be a difference maker in this game.
There are other players that might see time for both teams, but not much and maybe only because of fouls trouble or a blowout.
Statistically, it's pretty even but Tennessee looks like they get more out of their bench so far this season.
UConn's bench averages 11.7 points, 8.1 rebounds and 3 assists per game. Tennessee's bench averages 17.2 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game. Like I said, Makurat is the wildcard in this comparison.
Efficiency wise, UConn is shooting a combined 45.3% from the field and 35.6% on threes. Tennessee is shooting a combined 46.1% from the field and 32.3% on threes. 47 turnovers for UConn vs 57 turnovers for Tennessee.
It's not a big one but........
Advantage Tennesseee
Coach
Do I really have to do a comparison here? The best coach over the last 25 years vs a coach in her first season at her Alma Mater.
Geno has been the standard for a long time now. With 11 national championships and over 1000 wins and better than .885 winning percentage, he is without peer at this time. He continues to recruit at the highest level.
Kellie Jolly Harper is a terrific young coach that is building a very nice resume. She has coached at Western Carolina, NC State, Missouri State and now Tennessee. She currently has a 299-211 record.
Advantage UConn
Intangibles
It's at the XL center where it will be loud with maybe 14,000+ fans there. It's been a while but I'm sure the UConn fans in attendance still remember this rivalry.
Advantage UConn
UConn has the advantage in almost every position. Some are closer than others, but the Huskies are the better team. That is no surprise.
I just finished watching the Tennessee/Alabama game and I saw some things that make me shake my head.
Let me just say that at least in this game, I didn't see anything different between this version of the Lady Vols and last years team.
They don't seem to run much of an offense. They love to rebound and then run, but it always seemed forced. So much 1-1 play. A lot of standing around. Spacing is better but still pretty awful.
What they do well is defend the rim. They had to as I saw Alabama drive past their defender to the basket over and over. Key did a nice job with 6 blocks in this game. Key and Kushkituah basically split the center position. You won't see them on the court at the same time. So Tennessee is always big in the middle. If UConn can drive through the defense as easily as Alabama did, it will be a long night for Tennessee.
UConn will have to look out for the Tennessee full court press. They brought that on against Alabama to start the second half. It was somewhat effective. They are long and get their hands in the passing lanes.
I was surprised with how many times UConn was in a zone defense against Tulsa. I now believe it was specifically to force Tennessee to shoot from the outside, not exactly the Lady Vols strength, despite their 41% in the Alabama game.
This will be an intense game from beginning to end and the outcome could depend on which team handles the situation better. No matter how many times Geno downplays the game, everyone knows, including the players, that this is still a big game.
Final Prediction
A tough prediction here. I just don't know if Tennessee is really as bad as they were against Alabama. However, we do know that the Lady Vols have lost to the only good teams they have faced in Stanford, Texas and Kentucky. There is some talent on that team but with a new coach it takes time to get to the level where they can compete with the better teams. This game against UConn should be no different.
I always look for comparable games to look at when making my prediction. However, there are not any teams that both UConn and Tennessee have played. However, using Kevin Bacon's six degrees of separation as a guide I found that UConn played Virginia. Virginia played Kentucky. Kentucky played Tennessee. It means absolutely nothing but here is how that figures in. Tennessee lost to Kentucky 80-76, Kentucky beat Virginia 50-47 and UConn beat Virginia 83-44.
UConn certainly had their issues against Baylor, Memphis and UCF on the offensive end. If you watched the games you could see that they had open shots, but just missed them. Call it a slump, call it bad shooting, but looking at the last game against Tulsa, that slump could be over. Will the rims be as kind as Gampel? If so, look for a big UConn win.
My prediction? The rims won't be that kind and Tennessee will play inspired basketball.
However, the score will be....
UConn by 12+.
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