UCONN vs Baylor
Day: Thursday
Date: January 9th, 2020
Location: XL Center,
Hartford, Ct.
Time: 7:00 PM
TV: ESPN
No. 1 UConn 12-0 No. 6 Baylor 11-1
Head to Head games
BAYLOR | UCONN LEADS 4-3
H: 2-1 | A: 1-2 | N: 1-0
04/04/10 #1 UConn 70, #14 Baylor 50 San Antonio, Texas
11/16/10 #1 UConn 65, #2 Baylor 64 Hartford, Conn.
12/18/11 #1 Baylor 66, #2 UConn 61 Waco, Texas
02/18/13 #1 Baylor 76, #3 UConn 70 Hartford, Conn.
01/13/14 #1 UConn 66, #7 Baylor 55 Waco, Texas
11/17/16 #3 UConn 72, #2 Baylor 61 Storrs, Conn.
01/03/19 #8 Baylor 68, #1 UConn 57 Waco, Texas
Baylor Bears
The player and coaches names for both teams
are clickable to see their Bios
The other "advantage" that Baylor is said to say is their size. At least that is what I have heard. So is that really the case?
Well, slightly. Baylor starts 6'4" senior Cox, 6'2" Sophomore NaLyssa Smith, 6'1" Junior DiDi Richards, 5'8" Senior Juicy Landrum and 5'8" Graduate Student T'ea Cooper. UConn goes 6'5", 6'2", 6'1", 5'11", and 5'5". Looks pretty even to me. Off the bench Baylor will play 5'6" Moon Ursin and 6'3" Sophomore Queen Egbo. UConn has two 6'1" players off the bench.
So we can drop the "Baylor has too much size for UConn" arguement. It's just not true.
UConn, on the other hand, takes around 20 threes per game and they hit them at a very nice 39.2%. It will be a big part of their game. UConn is going to want to run and run and run in this game. UConn is in great shape because of their difficult practices and the many minutes they play in games. for Baylor, one issue in playing your starters so few minutes on the season is they are not prepared as well to play extended minutes and tire out more quickly. I can see that happening in this game.
Defensively it will be interesting to see how Geno matches up. Like I said, I don't see Nelson-Ododa on Cox. I would guess that he will start with Kyla Irwin on her. Cox will not out-run or out-quick Irwin, but her size will be an issue. I would look for UConn to do their own doubling when Cox posts up. The rest of the defensive match-ups are easy. Nelson-Ododa on Smith, Dangerfield on Cooper, Walker on Richards and Williams on Landrum. I like UConn's advantages here.
On paper this is a pretty darn good matchup. Baylor is defending national champions, UConn is ranked No. 1. Two really talented teams.
So you have to look for little things that will make a difference. I already mentioned the conditioning of the teams. I think that will come into play in UConn's advantage. The home court advantage will be big here as well. I am hoping for at least 13,000 loud Husky fans. I believe the lack of competition in their schedule to date will make a difference as well.
Because of these and that UConn, I believe is just the better team, I am going to be positive and say UConn by 8+.
BAYLOR | UCONN LEADS 4-3
H: 2-1 | A: 1-2 | N: 1-0
04/04/10 #1 UConn 70, #14 Baylor 50 San Antonio, Texas
11/16/10 #1 UConn 65, #2 Baylor 64 Hartford, Conn.
12/18/11 #1 Baylor 66, #2 UConn 61 Waco, Texas
02/18/13 #1 Baylor 76, #3 UConn 70 Hartford, Conn.
01/13/14 #1 UConn 66, #7 Baylor 55 Waco, Texas
11/17/16 #3 UConn 72, #2 Baylor 61 Storrs, Conn.
01/03/19 #8 Baylor 68, #1 UConn 57 Waco, Texas
This matchup has always been a great game and an indicator on how good these two teams have been during the Geno/Kim era.
Mulkey chickened out during the last two Stewart years after seeing what she could do to her team. So, back she came last season and ended UConn's 126 game regular season winning streak with a 68-57 win in Waco around 1 year ago. UConn was ranked No. 1 and Baylor was ranked No. 8. Very similar circumstances to this coming game. As painful as it is, here are the highlights from that game.
Overview
Baylor Bears
Baylor is 11-1 with their only loss a 74-59 to No. 4 South Carolina. It was not a good game for the Bears. They have handled every other team on their schedule. They beat then 23rd ranked South Florida 58-46 and then ranked No. 17 Indiana 77-62. Their other wins? Not the toughest schedule in the NCAA's. In fact, it's the usual weak OOC schedule. New Hamphire, Grambling, Houston Baptist, Lamar, Washington State, Arkansas State and Morehead State are the worst. Georgia and Oklahoma are the best.
UConn Huskies
UConn is coming off a solid win against SMU. They are now 12-0 and getting contributions from all 8 players in their rotation.
Comparative Team Statistics
UConn Baylor
80.6 PPG 88.0
55.7 Defensive PPG 48.1
24.9 Scoring Margin 39.9
49.1 Field Goal % 51.9
33.8 Defensive FG% 30.1
39.2 Three Point % 38.7
30.7 Defensive 3PT% 23.5
70.6 Free Throw % 69.0
44.3 Rebounds/game 42.7
10.9 Rebounding Margin 13.6
19.8 Assists per game 23.1
14.3 Turnover per game 13.7
1.4 Assists/TO ratio 1.7
8.7 Steals per game 11.3
6.3 Blocks per game 6.3
UCONN
The player and coaches names for both teams
are clickable to see their Bios
UConn Starters
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BAYLOR
Baylor Starters
Game Analysis
Like I do with most top opponents when I analyze them, I only look at the competitive game because that is what the UConn game will be. Just because they have 11 players in double digit minutes per game.
In their three competitive games, South Florida, Indiana and their loss to South Carolina their rotation was much smaller. Granted Lauren Cox was out for these game, but still they went only 6 deep in the against South Florida, 7 deep against Indiana and 6 deep against South Carolina. Even in their last game against Oklahoma with Cox in the lineup, they only went 7 deep.
So we can drop the "Baylor is way deeper than UConn" argument. It's just not true.
In their three competitive games, South Florida, Indiana and their loss to South Carolina their rotation was much smaller. Granted Lauren Cox was out for these game, but still they went only 6 deep in the against South Florida, 7 deep against Indiana and 6 deep against South Carolina. Even in their last game against Oklahoma with Cox in the lineup, they only went 7 deep.
So we can drop the "Baylor is way deeper than UConn" argument. It's just not true.
The other "advantage" that Baylor is said to say is their size. At least that is what I have heard. So is that really the case?
Well, slightly. Baylor starts 6'4" senior Cox, 6'2" Sophomore NaLyssa Smith, 6'1" Junior DiDi Richards, 5'8" Senior Juicy Landrum and 5'8" Graduate Student T'ea Cooper. UConn goes 6'5", 6'2", 6'1", 5'11", and 5'5". Looks pretty even to me. Off the bench Baylor will play 5'6" Moon Ursin and 6'3" Sophomore Queen Egbo. UConn has two 6'1" players off the bench.
So we can drop the "Baylor has too much size for UConn" arguement. It's just not true.
Cox and Smith are the starting forward. Cox is just playing her third game back since her foot injury and she is clearly working herself back into shape. Kim player her 34 minutes in a blowout of Oklahoma, trying to get her minutes to shake off the rust. It didn't work in this game as she was 5-17 from the field. Smith can be a beast out there although she got into foul trouble against Oklahoma and only played 23 minutes and scored 3 points. That being said, she is the leading scorer on the team at 15.6 and she averages 7.3 rebounds per game. She is an aggressive player that loves to attack the basket and hits the boards hard. She is always a possible double-double player.
They start three guards with 5'8" guard T'ea Cooper the transfer from South Carolina via Tennessee. She is leading the team in assists at 5.1 per game and second in scoring at 14.0 PPG. Cooper has done a great job taking over for the graduated Chloe Jackson. The other two guards are 5'8" Juicy Landrum and 6'1" DiDi Richards. Landrum is the only other three point shooter besides Cooper on the team and Richards is more of a swing player than a true guard. These guards are good players, but in spite of Landrums NCAA setting 14 threes in a game recently, neither of them are great.
Baylor has a long bench, as I mentioned, but only two players are guaranteed and that is Egbo and Moon. The Queen is a really good player that is third on the team in scoring at 13.7 and averages 7.8 rebounds per game.
The Bears will try to use their one real size advantage with Cox. UConn doesn't have a perfect fit of a player to guard her. Cox has a nice outside game and I don't believe Geno will put Nelson-Ododo on her. It would draw Olivia away from the basket and leave the driving lanes open for Baylor. Juicy Landry (Why do I love typing that name?) is a big three point threat shooting 49%, but she outside that freaky 14-27 game on threes, she will only take around 3 per game. In fact, their team shooting of 38.7% on three point shots very deceiving as they only take around 10 per game, even less if you take away that Landrum record setting game. I don't see that being too much of a factor.
Baylor will play a tough man-to-man defense. They really don't pressure the ball much individually, but use their long arms to defend. They love to double the ball once it's in the paint and look for steals. It's a real strength and the Huskies will have to be looking for that.
Baylor will play a tough man-to-man defense. They really don't pressure the ball much individually, but use their long arms to defend. They love to double the ball once it's in the paint and look for steals. It's a real strength and the Huskies will have to be looking for that.
UConn, on the other hand, takes around 20 threes per game and they hit them at a very nice 39.2%. It will be a big part of their game. UConn is going to want to run and run and run in this game. UConn is in great shape because of their difficult practices and the many minutes they play in games. for Baylor, one issue in playing your starters so few minutes on the season is they are not prepared as well to play extended minutes and tire out more quickly. I can see that happening in this game.
Defensively it will be interesting to see how Geno matches up. Like I said, I don't see Nelson-Ododa on Cox. I would guess that he will start with Kyla Irwin on her. Cox will not out-run or out-quick Irwin, but her size will be an issue. I would look for UConn to do their own doubling when Cox posts up. The rest of the defensive match-ups are easy. Nelson-Ododa on Smith, Dangerfield on Cooper, Walker on Richards and Williams on Landrum. I like UConn's advantages here.
Game Prediction
On paper this is a pretty darn good matchup. Baylor is defending national champions, UConn is ranked No. 1. Two really talented teams.
So you have to look for little things that will make a difference. I already mentioned the conditioning of the teams. I think that will come into play in UConn's advantage. The home court advantage will be big here as well. I am hoping for at least 13,000 loud Husky fans. I believe the lack of competition in their schedule to date will make a difference as well.
Because of these and that UConn, I believe is just the better team, I am going to be positive and say UConn by 8+.
It is going to be a great game (hopefully). I don’t like Kyla on Cox. My guess is that Aubrey will Guard her a lot. In these type of games sometimes a role player makes a huge impact. I’m putting Griffin out there as the difference. She has the athleticism to compete with Cox. Also Baylor wins the all name team. Moon, Queen, Juicy is as good as it gets.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with Cox for UConn is not her athleticism. It's her size and the tough matchup in the post that she presents. Griffin will not have the bulk to handle her. I really like Irwin on her and double her when she gets the ball in the post.
Deletethis was very good. and i agree with your prediction. i too believe that uconn is the better team
ReplyDeleteI can only hope you’re right but I’m picking Baylor by 5. Hopefully I’m dead wrong!
ReplyDeleteNice analysis as always.
ReplyDelete